The Precautionary Principle in Civil Liability: A Contribution to the Development of Traditional Rules

Introduction

In today’s environment of rapid scientific research and technological development, different ways of applying new knowledge and innovations are constantly being engendered that present us with more possibilities and challenges. [1]

Spectacular industrial development that has been caused by social, economic and technological transformations, has touched the various aspects of human life. As a consequence, it has pushed the modern legislations to seek new and effective mechanisms along with traditional rules of civil responsibility, in order to strike a balance between the intensive use of technology (which became a new pattern of living) and its likely hazard in order to minimize the risks posed by certain contemporary humanitarian activities and practices.

Source

The precautionary principle (PP) has gained much importance and has critically influenced academic dialogue, especially after the various crises [2] seen by the world in recent years. This proved that the development of technology and biological sciences has created new risks that were not familiar, such that existing legal solutions are no longer sufficient to confront them.

These factors have paved the way for a gradual shift from the application of traditional civil liability rules to a new liability framework that seeks to introduce global preventive liability based on precautionary measures.

Therefore, it can be said that these risks have been the main reason for applying the precautionary principle in order to guarantee better prevention from risks of industrial activities, and products that pose a real threat to the environment, health and safety.

In other words, the precautionary principle has become one of the most important topics that are addressed and discussed in modern times, because of its application to both international and domestic laws. Furthermore, it was regarded as a protective mechanism with a preventive function, especially when it comes to potentially uncertain, irreversible and serious damage. This leads to the following question: Should the precautionary principle become a true principle of civil liability law?

The objectives of this paper are, first to examine and discuss issues arising in the definition and the specific conditions of the principle in order to apply it in the specific field of civil liability; and second to consider the impact of the precautionary principle on traditional rules in civil liability. Especially when it comes to realizing the importance of the precautionary approach as a logical extension of commonsense concepts that guide daily life: “an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure“; “better safe than sorry“. It challenges us to prevent harm before it occurs. [3]

Discussion

1. Legal Concepts of the Precautionary Principle

The origins of the precautionary principle can be traced back to the German domestic law Vorsorgeprinzip [4] aimed at the protection of human health against the effect of certain chemical substances. [5]

However, it was  devoted at the international level through the international agreements and treaties on environmental issues. The precautionary principle is included in the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, and in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. [6] Later, the precautionary principle was incorporated into the article on precaution (Article 5.7) of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) of 1994, as well as into the Biosafety Protocol that was approved in Montreal in January 2000. [7]

The precautionary principle or precautionary approach, is used in variety of ways, and a wide range of formulations exists. [8]

Since, there is no unified definition for this principle, I will firstly examine the various definitions given to the PP, and then I will examine the application conditions as follows.

Source

1.1. Definitions

The precautionary principle was formulated for the first time in the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development in 1992, and has been recognized as one of the important principles of the environmental protection. Principle 15 espouse the PP as follows:

 “In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by states according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevalent environmental degradation.”

Equally, the PP was espoused in the London Declaration (Second International Conference on the Protection of the North Sea 1987) as follows:

“[…] In order to protect the North Sea from possibly damaging effects of the most dangerous substances, a precautionary approach is necessary which may require action to control inputs of such substances even before a causal link has been established by absolutely clear scientific evidence.”

Therefore, the precautionary principle has taken root to domestic laws especially environmental and consumer laws, after being one of the most applicant principles in the international law. These include the French law which adopted the precautionary approach in their constitution, the principle was established through (Article 5) [9] which provides for it as follows:

“Where the realization of damage, although uncertain in the state of scientific knowledge, could seriously and irreversibly affect the environment, the public authorities shall ensure, by application of the precautionary principle, and in their areas of attribution, the implementation of risk assessment procedures and the adoption of provisional and proportionate measures in order to counter the realization of the damage.”

Correspondingly, the French Environmental Law called Law of Barnier [10] adopted in 1995, attempted to provide for the precautionary principle as follows:

“The lack of certainty, under the present state of scientific and technological knowledge, should not lead to postpone effective and proportionate measures aimed at preventing threats of serious and irreversible damages to the environment at an acceptable economic cost.”

Moreover, in Italy, the legal recognition of the precautionary principle has been concreted with Legislative Decree No. 152/2006 (Environment Code), Article 301 ("Implementation of the Precautionary Principle"), Paragraph 1, states: "Pursuant to the precautionary principle referred to in Article 174 (2) of the EC Treaty, in case of dangers, if not potential, for human health and the environment, a high level of protection must be ensured." The Legislative Decree No. 4/2008 then introduced into the Environmental Code. [11]

Similary, it was also approved by the Algerian Legislature in Act No. 10-03 of 19 July 2003 related to environmental protection in the context of sustainable development, where Article 3 states:

''[...] The lack of certainty, due to current scientific and technical knowledge should not be a reason to postpone effective measures to prevent the risk of serious damage to the environment, at an acceptable economic cost."

Although, there is no unified definition of the precautionary principle, the conditions that should be achieved in order to apply it without giving an exhaustive definition may be established.

It can be said that the precautionary principle is a specific concept that can be reflected in the following five key elements:

1. It concerns uncertain or probable risks that are not proven yet. The precautionary principle must be applied to face rational danger. It must logically be related to serious or irreversible damage, even if there is an ignorance of the causes.

2. It is not only about the present, but also about the future. This is a principle for future generations as well as for present generations. Which lead to a collective-public responsibility approach.

3. In essence, it targets “serious” or “irreversible” threats. Therefore, the precautionary principle requires a set of procedures for risk assessment: tracking, conducting scientific studies, monitoring and surveillance.

4. It recognizes the need to take temporary, appropriate measures to deal with irreversible damage. Prevention is only a limited measure of temporary and modifiable measures based on emerging knowledge.

5. It is often resorted under the designation "risk management", which depends on the intervention of the public authorities (political, legal, administrative etc.).

1.2. Precautionary Principle or Prevention Principle: What Is the Difference? [12] 

In matters of personal health, prevention and precaution are widely recognized „best practices”, [13] they are often confused, as they are used as synonymous concepts because of their great convergence. On the contrary, they are different in a range of aspects.

The precautionary principle based on confronting the potential risk due to lack of absolute scientific certainty about its seriousness and the gravity of the damages involved. In other words, adopting the precautionary principle is based on the lack of scientific certainty according to the available scientific knowledge and the absence of the causal link.

This suggests that adopting the prevention principle would be limited only to the therapeutic role (repairing the damage), while the prominent role of precaution is the prevention from probable risks, which finds its basis in doubt and future fears.

Accordingly, what distinguishes precaution from prevention is scientific knowledge, so the traditional preventive responsibility concept based on the economic analyses standing on the balance between benefits and proven damage to reduce harmful effects, is no longer useful in keeping with the technological developments that resulted in threats of the emergence of new risks, which has become a new paradigm with which to confront these dangers, which is sought by the precautionary principle.

1.3. Conditions to Apply the Precautionary Principle 

In order to apply the precautionary principle, three basic conditions must be available:

1. Lack of scientific certainty: Previous research generally confirms that the PP obliges the authorities to take an early account of potential hazard, without waiting their full scientific establishment. [14] Besides, the precautionary measures should be taken when facing irreversible risks that are scientifically uncertain.

However, the precautionary principle is a norm and a benchmark to address situations of scientific uncertainty on potential damage to health and the environment. [15] Even if they cannot immediately show full scientific evidence supporting their allegations, states have to prove that they are actively committed to resolving existing uncertainty in a reasonable time limit. [16]

For instance, Article 5.7 of SPS Agreement states:

“In cases where relevant scientific evidence is insufficient, a member may provisionally adopt sanitary or phytosanitary measures on the basis of available scientific information, including that from the relevant international organizations as well as from sanitary and phytosanitary measures applied by other members.

In such circumstances, members shall seek to obtain the additional information necessary for a more objective assessment of risk and review the sanitary or phytosanitary measure accordingly within a reasonable period of time.” [17]

Typically, this requirement is that the precautionary principle does not apply to proven risks, it is a prudential approach, only applied in the absence of sufficient scientific evidence based on current scientific knowledge. The availability of which would provide sufficient data on the risk and the magnitude of the potential damage.

In fact, the precautionary principle is one of the non-traditional solutions; it constitutes an exception to the rule of ‘’The law's dependence on scientific and technological progress".

Given the above discussion, this principle has not arisen as a result of the harmful results of scientific/industrial developments regarding the environment, health and safety, but rather to avoid a lack of certainty or a lack of scientific evidence, in order to require legal regulations in preventing their occurrence.

2. Threat of serious or irreversible harm: The PP is addressed in order to face harmful consequences caused by human’s dangerous activities. It is applicable to prevent serious, irreversible damage and it is harmful effects on human health and environment.

3. Acceptable economic cost: The precautionary principle requires precautionary measures to be proportionate to the severity of potential damage, but also to the plausibility of the threat and inversely to the costs of prevention, which include loss of benefits. [18]

1.4. The Influence of the Precautionary Principle on Traditional Rules of Responsibility

Liability is the obligation of a person under the applicable law to provide compensation for damage resulting from an action for which that person is deemed to be responsible. [19]

The precautionary principle has brought a new vision with which to explore the civil liability based on probable risks. It is addressing the "probable damage" instead of proven damage, it also provides an extension of causal link.

1.5. Precautionary Principle and Potential Damage: New Vision

The occurrence of damage leads to liability in general, whether in domestic or international law. [20]

Therefore, the Moroccan Legislator defined the damage through Chapter 98 of C.O.C as follows:

“The loss and the necessary expenses that were or will have to be spent to repair the results of the harmful act, as well as the benefit, it was denied in the ordinary course of the results of the harmful act.”

In fact, the damage is not subject to compensation if there is no set of elements, which is indicated by the legislator as follows:

• The damage should be direct to clarify that it must be directly caused by the harmful act (error), as affirmed by the Moroccan legislator in Chapter 77 of the C.O.C.

• The damage must be addressed to a legitimate interest.

• The damage must be achieved immediately.

Conversely, the damage implied here is potential damage that did not occur, and there is no evidence that it will occur. Therefore, it is extremely likely to occur, but the degree of this possibility varies from strength to weakness.

Consequently, the adaptation of damage in the context of a precautionary philosophy requires a search for new methods that include the potential damage in the range of damage that entails the various legal effects of civil liability, provided that the likelihood of such damage is serious and irreparable. These methods determine the necessary compensation to offset past, current and future damages without directly valuing them in economic terms, by equalizing the amount of loss and gain of resources and services over time. [21]

In other words, the liability arising from the precautionary approach is a liability based initially on risk, since the latter, in turn, is uncertain and unknown.

In addition, it is based on the fear of encountering serious, non-refundable potential damage that may not materialize.

Source

Extension of the Causal Link: Scientific causality is a precondition for legal causality, but it is not sufficient to establish the latter. In English law, the concept of legal causality is divided into two: first, the judge asks if the damage would have been caused without the fact in question. The fact will be considered a cause if it is a necessary condition for damage. When the actual causal relationship is established, the judge goes to the second condition; decide whether the type of injury is a reasonably foreseeable consequence of the fact in question. [22].

According to some doctrine, [23] the causal link could be explained as follows:

“It is not sufficient for tort to cause harm to a certain person because of another person's error. Rather, it must be the direct cause of the damage.”

According to German law, a person who has violated the precautionary principle is responsible, because of a causal infringement, when it is not possible to disregard his/her action (marketing of a dangerous product). [24]

In addition, the Moroccan’s Obligations and Contracts Code, Article 77, provides that:

"Any act committed by a person with his or her choice, without being permitted by law, causing material or moral damage to others, commits the perpetrator to compensate for such damage, if it is established that the act is the direct cause of the injury...’’

In the same way, Article 78 of the C.O.C. states:

"Every person is responsible for the moral or material damage he has caused, not only by doing so.. .When it’s proven that this error is the direct cause of the damage..."

In this regard, one researcher [25] continues:

“[...] The doctrine considers that, if it is unreasonable to require absolute certainty as to the absence of potential harm, prior to authorizing a polluting activity, it does not then accept a requirement of absolute certainty in the causal link through the extension of the judge's acceptance of the indicators and physical evidence, and sufficient to establish a sufficient probability of the causal link, thereby becoming certainty required in a relatively causal relationship.”

Thus said, the precautionary principle would broaden the traditional concept of causation, since instead of being a direct and constant relationship between the risks and the damage, it would become a mere relative probability and proportional relationship for the judge to be inferred by various legal presumptions and factual circumstances.

1.6. The Impact of the Precautionary Principle on Compensation Rules

Compensation is a significant effect of proven civil liability, as it is a way of redressing the harm suffered by others.

As the development of contemporary humanitarian activities has resulted in threats of new risks, the traditional rules of compensation, although sufficient to cover proven damages, are not sufficient to cover potential damages.

The consensus has been that the precautionary principle has a preventive role before its compensatory character, primarily aimed at precaution against unknown risks, since before recourse is made to damages, a range of preventive measures are taken. Such as temporary prevention of the activity or temporary with drawal of the commodity or product to avoid damage.

However, the developing concept of damage in the light of the emergence of ecological damage which threatens health and safety, as a result of the infinite manufacture and the use of chemicals, petroleum, atomic energy in all activities (medical industry services) presented a set of legal problems concerning the nature of the possible compensation for probable damage.

Correspondingly, it can be said that the nature of these potential damages imposes the necessity of distributing two kind of compensation in the light of the precautionary principle:

The Initial Compensation: Initially to compensate for damage as long as the latter has not yet been achieved, but current scientific indicators do not confirm or cancel the possibility of achieving it.

On this basis, the precautionary indemnity is considered as a deterrent sanction for not observing the precautionary principle, as it would affect the actions of entrepreneurs with future risks to the environment, where they remain responsible until the harmful activity is achieved and its results are completed.

In this regard, professor Echerkaoui explains:

''[...] The importance of compensating the victim has prompted many legislations to consider creating new mechanisms to ensure that some groups are compensated... One of the most important of these mechanisms is the so-called guarantee funds, which only guarantee the injured in a precautionary manner.” [26]

In the same way, the professor adds:

''[...] On the other hand, given the nature of some international risks, international funds have been created to ensure compensation for damages resulting from such risks, for instance the International Fund for Compensation of Damage caused by marine pollution, which was created under the 1971 Brussels Convention.”

In this regard, the Moroccan Legislature provides, in Article 60 of Law 11.03 on Environmental Protection and Rehabilitation, that:

"The National Fund for Environmental Protection and Rehabilitation shall be established and determined by the applicable text of the legal framework of this fund and its functions, resources and expenses."

Thus, the probability nature of the damage requires the judge to make the initial indemnity a guarantee of the victim's collateral, while it is a deterrent to the perpetrator of the harmful activity because of its irregularity and disrespect for the precautionary principle by evaluating the harmful effects of the activity or the product in a rough manner.

The Final Compensation: If the precautionary compensation for damage under the precautionary principle is considered as a lump-sum deterrent, it is the discretionary power of the judge, where the later assesses the risk and the approximate adaptation of the damage likely to occur.

Then final compensation requires that the damage occurred, since the later moves from being merely an uncertain potential harm to become an achieved proven damage, to which the various ordinary rules of responsibility apply.

Thus, the final compensation requires that the damage be fully compensated, as it includes the various material, physical and moral damages suffered by the victim, and the damages that should have been taken care of in order to avoid their occurrence.

Adopting the precautionary principle in assessing compensation also requires victims to have a specified period of time to claim additional compensation in the event of an aggravated damage or increasing consequences.

Conclusion

In summary, the changing nature of damage has transformed the precautionary principle into a new approach to risk management, the importance of which stems from attempts to control risks to ensure human safety, health and the environment; especially in light of the alarming rise in global catastrophes as a result of advances in science and industry, as well as the growing demand for and the desire to use nuclear energy regardless of its dangerous consequences.

Therefore, the precautionary principle is today a cornerstone for the creation of global preventive responsibility, given this serious environmental damage (global warming, ozone hole, water and air pollution, etc.), as well as damage to health (endemic diseases caused by industrial enterprises), cannot pass without consideration, as the thinker Hans Jonas writes  in his famous book «The Principle of Responsibility»; it is impossible to evade responsibility in the face of future generations by registering this damage against unknown, although everyone must take responsibility as much as his contribution to it.

Therefore, the adoption of the precautionary principle can only be achieved by establishing its legal value:

• Admittedly, by activating it at the realistic level and establishing mechanisms to strengthen its application (assigning the task of managing risks to certain competent authorities), considering that this principle is a tool owned by the state public authorities. In order  to manage  the potential hazards of a serious-irreversible risks that may affect human health  or environmental balance.

• Expertise must be rigorously organized to achieve quality and credibility.

• This principle must be stipulated and regulated within the legal rules.

Finally, the application of the precautionary principle should not be limited only to environmental damage, but should be extended to the consumer sector; especially in all aspects of health security in the sequence of consumer protection and food security.

References

Pascal Gastineau-Emmanuelle Taugourdeau : Which compensation for whom , Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne ,November 2012 ; Submitted on 26 Dec 2012, hal archives ouvertes.

Olivier Godard : the precautionnary principle between social norms and economic constructs, Cahier n° 2005-020, June 2005 .

Olivier GODARD : Revisiting the precautionary principle under the light of 2002-2003 Frensh and international events, October 2003, Cahier n° 2003-018

Olivier Godard : the precautionnary principle, the environnment and international trade : sovereignty and collective preferences in question, cahier n° 2005-06

Olivier Godard : the precautionnary principle between social norms and economic constructs, Cahier n° 2005-020, June 2005

Claude HENRY- Marc HENRY : formalization of the precautionnary principle, Cahier n° 2002-008

Abderrahman Echarkaoui, Civil law: A recent study of the general theory of obligations and contracts in light of the impact of the new economic Law concepts , first edition 2015

عبد الرحمان الشرقاوي- القانون المدني : دراسة حديثة للنظرية العامة للالتزام على ضوء تأثرها بالمفاهيم الجديدة للقانون الاقتصادي, الطبعة الأولى 2015

Mohammed hamidani : Environmental civil liability in Algerian and comparative legislation- towards a protective environmental responsibility. Edition dar al jami’a 2017 , p 171.

محمد حميداني، المسؤولية المدنية البيئية في التشريع الجزائري و المقارن نحو مسؤولية بيئية وقائية. دار الجامعة الجديدة،2017 ص 171

Carl SMITH : the precautionnary principle and environmental policy science, uncertainty, and sustainability. Special series(pdf document) p 263.

Gonzalo Quintero-Olivares : le principe de précaution et sa difficile incorporation au droit pénal1101, p406 - Article published in : «  L’INFLUENCE DU PRINCIPE DE PRÉCAUTION SUR LE DROIT DE LA RESPONSABILITÉ CIVILE ET PÉNALE COMPARÉ » Recherche réalisée avec le soutien de la Mission de recherche Droit et Justice Septembre 2016.

The precautionnary principle : world commission on the Ethics of scientific knowledge and technology,printed in France, published in 2005 by the UNESCO.

Roosie COONEY : the precautionary principle in biodiversity and natural resource management, an issue paper for policy makers, researchers and practitioners ; IUCN policy and global change series No.2/ the world conservation Union 2004

Simon Taylor : la responsabilité civile et l’incertitude scientifique : rapport sur le droit anglais, published in : « l’influence du principe de précaution sur le droit de la responsabilité civile et pénale comparé.»  Recherche réalisée avec le soutien de la Mission de recherche Droit et Justice Septembre 2016.

Christian Jäger : le principe de précaution comme maxime d’action en droit de l’environnement et de la santé ainsi que ses répercussions sur le droit pénal Allemand ; Recherche réalisée avec le soutien de la Mission de recherche Droit et Justice Septembre 2016.

[1]The precautionary principle- world commission on the ethics of scientific knowledge and technology -  published in 2005 by the united nations educationnal scientific and cultural organization , p 1.

[2] For instance,Bovine spongiform encephalopathy commonly known as mad cow disease.

[3] Carl SMITH: the precautionary principle and environmental policy science, uncertainty, and sustainability. Special series.p 263 

[4] Claude HENRY- Marc HENRY : formalization of the precautionary principle, Cahier n° 2002-008,p2

[5]  Gonzalo Quintero-Olivares : LE PRINCIPE DE PRÉCAUTION ET SA DIFFICILE INCORPORATION AU DROIT PÉNAL1101, p406 article published in :« L’INFLUENCE DU PRINCIPE DE PRÉCAUTION SUR LE DROIT DE LA RESPONSABILITÉ CIVILE ET PÉNALE COMPARÉ » Recherche réalisée avec le soutien de la Mission de recherche Droit et Justice Septembre 2016.

[6] The precautionary principle : world commission on the Ethics of scientific knowledge and technology,printed in France, published in 2005 by the UNESCO p 8.

[7] The precautionary principle : world commission on the Ethics of scientific knowledge and technology, published in 2005 p 8.

[8] Roosie COONEY : the precautionary principle in biodiversity and natural resource management, an issue paper for policy makers, researchers and practitioners ; IUCN policy and global change series No.2/ the world conservation Union 2004 p 1

[9] « Lorsque la réalisation d’un dommage bien qu'incertaine en l'état des connaissances scientifiques, pourrait affecter de manière grave et irréversible l'environnement, les autorités publiques veilleront, par application du principe de précaution, et dans leurs domaines d'attribution, à la mise en œuvre de procédures d'évaluation des risques et à l'adoption de mesures provisoires et proportionnées afin de parer à la réalisation du dommage. »

[10] La loi 95-101 , dite loi Barnier( Article L110-1) cite : « le principe de précaution , selon lequel l’absence de certitudes, compte tenu des connaissances scientifiques et techniques du moment, ne doit pas retarder l’adoption de mesures effectives et proportionnées visant à prévenir un risque de dommages graves et irréversibles à l’environnement à un cout économiquement acceptable . »

[11] Michele Cespa : LE PRINCIPE DE PRÉCAUTION EN ITALIE - LE PROBLÈME DES CHAMPS ÉLECTROMAGNÉTIQUES-Article published in : « L’INFLUENCE DU PRINCIPE DE PRÉCAUTION SUR LE DROIT DE LA RESPONSABILITÉ CIVILE ET PÉNALE COMPARÉ » Recherche réalisée avec le soutien de la Mission de recherche Droit et Justice Septembre 2016, p 337

[12]  « …The PP deals with risks with poorly known outcomes and poorly known  probability, the unquantified possibility is sufficient to trigger the considerations of the PP, this distinguishes the PP from the prevention principle : if one does have a credible ground for quantifying probabilities, then the prevention principle applies instead. In that case, risks can be managed by, for instance, agreeing on an  acceptable risk level for the activity and putting enough measures in place to keep the risk below that level… »

The precautionnary principle : world commission on the Ethics of scientific knowledge and technology, published in 2005, p 13.

[13] Carl SMITH : the precautionnary principle and environmental policy science, uncertainty, and sustainability. Special series (pdf document) p 263.

[14]Olivier Godard : the precautionary principle, the environnment and international trade : sovereignty and collective preferences in question, cahier n° 2005-06, P 3

[15] Olivier Godard : the precautionary principle, the environnment and international trade : sovereignty and collective preferences in question, cahier n° 2005-06, P 6

[16]Olivier Godard : the precautionary principle between social norms and economic constructs, Cahier n° 2005-020, June 2005, P 6

[17]Olivier Godard : the precautionary principle between social norms and economic constructs, Cahier n° 2005-020, June 2005 p 6

[18]  Olivier GODARD : Revisiting the precautionary principle under the light of 2002-2003 Frensh and international events, October 2003, Cahier n° 2003-018, p 7

[19] The precautionnary principle: world commission on the Ethics of scientific knowledge and technology, published in 2005 p 24

[20]  Yousfat Ali Hachem- Abdelkader Mahdaoui : international liability for damage caused by nuclear Leaks, P 5

[21]  Pascal Gastineau-Emmanuelle Taugourdeau : Which compensation for whom, Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, November 2012 ; Submitted on 26 Dec 2012, hal archives ouvertes, p 4

[22] Simon Taylor : LA RESPONSABILITÉ CIVILE ET L’INCERTITUDE SCIENTIFIQUE : RAPPORT SUR LE DROIT ANGLAIS Université Paris Diderot /« L’INFLUENCE DU PRINCIPE DE PRÉCAUTION SUR LE DROIT DE LA RESPONSABILITÉ CIVILE ET PÉNALE COMPARÉ » Recherche réalisée avec le soutien de la Mission de recherche Droit et Justice Septembre 2016, p 266.

[23] Abderrahman Echarkaoui, Civil law: A recent study of the general theory of obligations and contracts in light of the impact of the neweconomic Law concepts , first edition 2015  p 119

[24]Christian Jäger : LE PRINCIPE DE PRÉCAUTION COMME MAXIME D´ACTION EN DROIT DE L´ENVIRONNEMENT ET DE LA SANTÉ AINSI QUE SES RÉPERCUSSIONS SUR LE DROIT PÉNAL ALLEMAND ;Recherche réalisée avec le soutien de la Mission de recherche Droit et Justice Septembre 2016, p 329.

[25] Mohammed hamidani : Environmental civil liability in Algerian and comparative legislation- towards a protective environmental responsibility. Edition dar al jami’a 2017 , p 171. 

[26] Abderrahman Echarkaoui, Civil law: A recent study of the general theory of obligations and contracts in light of the impact of the neweconomic Law concepts , first edition 2015  p 393.

Edited by Margarita Mikhailova & Nataliya Napetova

The Unfolding of the Economy in the Coronavirus Era

After the financial crisis of 2008, the world is now facing the most difficult economic challenge yet, caused by the of COVID-19 pandemic. Governments all around the world have taken lockdown measures to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe. Many economists argue that this crisis is similar to the Great Depression of 1930s, while others argue that this is an unprecedented crisis, and being unprecedented makes it even more difficult to tackle. 

Going through economy’s history we can see that economic crises have always been different from one another. Economic, social and political contexts change over time, and so produce different realities. It is no surprise that the world economy is struggling now that it found itself in a new economic environment in which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) does not play its previous role for the economy, economic growth does not necessarily affect the economy qualitatively, fiscal policies pose serious questions, in which the liquidity trap is present even more and monetary policy could not intervene conventionally…etc

Source

According to the International Monetary Fund’s outlook, the economic contraction was 16% during the 2008 financial crisis, and the current one is 6%. To be clear, the crisis we are currently facing has caused less damage than the financial crisis of 2008. The fact that this crisis is unprecedented does not mean it is more serious. Each economic crisis is different from one another, as it occurs in different conditions and economic contexts, as well as seeks different types of policies and responses for the economy to recover.

The Liquidity trap has been a huge gap for Central Banks over the last years in order to raise their effectiveness while dealing with monetary policies. And if we look carefully, an interest rate of about 0% has practically no effect on the economy, at least in the short turn. The reactions of an economy are obviously based on the factors that influence its trends. Low rates of economic growth have led to low savings, economic uncertainty, unemployment, and therefore, the economy remains contracted. The limits of Central Banks conventional instruments are pretty obvious. There is no guarantee for their effectiveness. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are using unconventional monetary instruments to support the economic growth. Thus, the liquidity trap is currently structural rather than temporary.

The global economy is also experiencing an important shift in the labour market. During and after the emergency, this trend could potentially intensify. Why? Because the digitalization of economy seems to be an alternative choice for businesses and workers in such a difficult time. The economy must be robust in difficult situations, and digital channels have undoubtedly contributed to the way the economy worked during the blockade. The shift towards digitalization of work environments began a few years ago and was obvious to everyone, including those with modest knowledge in the field of economics.

Emerging markets have been hit a lot by the lockdown of the global economy and the disruption of the international supply chain. Especially the South Asian markets, where a significant part of the global volume of retail products is concentrated. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), trade disruptions will range from 13% to 32%.

National debt crises in emerging markets are not a novel problem. In fact, they have been steadily increasing over the past two years and are indeed resulting in “debt spiral”, as Joseph Stieglitz called it. In addition, some emerging markets, such as Argentina, have to face private debt as well.

An important factor affecting the ability of emerging markets to be resistant to foreign investors is related to the dependence on the US dollar as a borrowing and trading currency in international markets. We have to be honest: the dominance of the dollar in international finance is neither random, nor unknown. The US dollar dominates the international trade and finance since the end of World War II.

After all, what is noticed during the COVID-19 crisis is the lack of cooperation between governments all around the world, or, at least, the collaboration does address urgent matters. Even with such a humanitarian crisis, a national approach prevails, although the problem is common. The emergency response policies to COVID-19 vary from country to country. There is no reason to be surprised of the fact that there is a lack of coordination measures on an international scale, as nationalism and protectionism manifest in earnest.

In fact, the emerging protectionism has a direct impact on growth. The escalation of trade tension has had a significant impact on the global economy and has led to a decrease in the intensity of global supply chains. With the lockdown of the economy, demand, at least in the short term, seems to be problematic. The shock of the global supply chain may raise the question of the future of globalization. Protectionism has always been there, but the emergency situation of COVID-19 just gave it the opportunity to be noticeable.

Another issue of which governments are pretty wary, is a sharp increase of unemployment. Just before the crisis, unemployment rate in U.S. was at its lowest historic level since 1960. It has been at 7% In Europe. Unemployment is likely to exacerbate inequalities between and within countries. The most vulnerable part of society is the working and middle-class. The poor and the middle-class will be the ones to suffer most. According to Nouriel Roubini, in case of U-shape recovery scenario, the time required for the economy to recover will at least be till 2021, as well as in case of the L-shape scenario. In both cases, in a realistic, so as in a pessimistic one, all evidence warns of widening inequality, especially in advanced economies.

The purpose of this article is to emphasize that the global economic crisis we are going through is only one side of the coin. Governments and Central Banks should keep in mind that crucial and deep structural anomalies held the economy back before the COVID-19 did. The lockdown of the economy is temporary; the structural economic crisis is already constant in the global economy.

Edited by Hiba Arrame

The Militarisation of COVID-19: The Armed Forces and Human Rights

“The Army will heal the people”, declared AMLO in April 2020 (Lopez Obrador cited by Herrera, 2020), when referring to the pivotal role the army will play in addressing the COVID-19 caused pandemic. This statement is illustrative of the global changes which have in recent years drastically impacted the security field and its agencies. The latter typically would not be directly involved in health issues. Regardless, globalisation processes have highlighted the deepening internal-external nexus and given new rise to new interactions between the state and external security forces. In this world, as the threats figuring in the international arena become increasingly transnational and ambiguous in nature (Brandão, 2015), a natural health threat such as COVID-19 overlaps with its own framing as a security threat. 

Dominguez, J., P. (2017) Source

However, until fairly recently, the ruling Real Politik paradigm of the Cold War would not have included a pandemic when considering security studies (Eriksson e Rhinard, 2009). Recognising the virus as a security threat sets new securitary dynamics into play. In several countries, regardless of the current political regime, these external security agencies, namely the army, have been mobilised and have been contributing to safeguarding public health by building medical tents and hospitals (Graham, 2020). One could interpret the attribution of this responsibility as an illustration of the internal/external security nexus, which highlights the integrated nature of a previous binary understanding (Bigo, 2000). Conversely, other occasions have witnessed armed forces tagging along with police agencies in enforcing brutal measures and crushing human rights (de Waal, 2020).

The shifting role of traditionally external security agencies, traditionally tasked with addressing external defence concerns is mirrored by this point and raises new questions. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the profound engagement of military agencies in the response, it is productive to weigh the responsibilities imposed on security agencies by state actors, continuously bearing in mind that security is a “powerful political tool in claiming attention for priority items in the competition for government attention” (Buzan, 1991 p. 370). As such we will explore of the militarisation of the pandemic through an analysis of the repercussions of the parts external security forces are currently playing. To this end, it will be fruitful to first map out the fundamental concepts in security studies which may help unpack the dynamics at hand. Lastly, we will focus on the concrete effects of the involvement of the military in the pandemic response, from positive results, to negative ones. Considering the diverse results in the employment of the armed forces to the service of public health, we will once again come back to a derivative meaning of security.

The Militarisation of COVID-19

For the past decades, external security agencies have participated in supporting responses to large scale outbreaks or natural disasters (Godefroy, 2020). In reality, the new reality linked to the 9/11 attacks imposes a more integrated understanding of security. These attributions also come to emphasise the concept of Human Security (CIVIC, 2020). Ultimately, this vision the individual as the referent security object, against all alternatives, corresponding to an extension of the meaning of security (Newman, 2010; Rothschild, 1995). This notion is also linked to a more connected world, where ultimately the notions of security and defence are blurred. 

Accordingly, in the midst of the pandemic and all its consequences, the army is suited to address the pressing need to support the state apparatus in various ways (Branco, 2020). In parallel, the threat posed by the virus has been painted time and time again as if a war enemy, which directly legitimises the involvement of armed forces for the protection of the State, even if within the domestic territory. On the other hand, the militarisation of the pandemic raises questions on the civil-military relationships. The deepening of the relationship between the government and the armed forces is worth highlighting, and especially so when memories are fresh of brutal violent State policies acted on by the armed forces (Noko, 2020). 

Moreover, the active framing of the pandemic as pertaining to the military universe is not without consequences, starting with the role played by security agencies and its impact on societies. In reality, as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet points out:

“We have seen many States adopt justifiable, reasonable and time-limited measures. But there have also been deeply worrying cases where Governments appear to be using COVID-19 as a cover for human rights violations, further restricting fundamental freedoms and civic space, and undermining the rule of law.”

Whereas realist authors criticise the expansion of the security concept and privilege the material dimensions of responses to strictly military threats in the definition (Ceyhan, 1998; Deudney & Ayoob apud McSweeney, 2004; Walt, 1991), a critical point of view would point to the intrinsic link between politics and security (Williams, 2008). In these terms, security becomes a much more complex issue, considering that its meaning derives directly from the political understanding of the one interpreting or producing it (Krause, 1998; Bigo, 2000; McSweeney, 2004). 

Accordingly, this line of thinking would also privilege a constructive lens when analysing the threats included in the security agenda (Haftendorn, 1991) through processes of naming and framing, contradicting the inherent threatening character of the phenomenon in question (Bigo, 2000; Eriksson & Rhinard, 2009). As Nunes (2008 p. 4) put it, we are now looking at the “relations of mutual dependence between the security representations, the normative choices and the way security concerns and practices play out in the social and political world” (“relação de dependência mútua entre as representações da segurança, as escolhas normativas e a forma como preocupações de segurança e práticas se desenrolam no mundo social e político”). 

As previously noted, this realisation accompanies the expansion of the range of topics susceptible of being considered security (Fierke, 2007; Schlag, Junk & Daase, 2016), as the individual therefore becomes the central referent object when thinking about security (UNDP, 1994; Commission on Global Governance, 1995; Rothschild, 1995). Through the lens of Human security, the concept of security may reach a large variety of topics, such as positive peace, social and economic justice, climate change and public health (Ullman, 1983; Buzan, 1991; Booth, 1991). Accordingly, military operations tied to a traditionally narrower, state-centric understanding of security become linked to a broader security agenda (Godefroy, 2020).

As ISSAT (2020) points out, the COVID 19 pandemic reinforces Human Security’s place at the “forefront of the world’s concerns”. Health issues are therefore listed on the security agenda as a threat, opening the way for it to be met as so, by mobilising security agencies. This point is perfectly mirrored in the current COVID-19 response, which has generally become a top security priority for States at this point. After having reflected on the evolution of security definitions in the context of a globalised world, it is also worth diving into the responses addressed to securitised phenomena.

Navarro, W. (2019). Source

To this end, we will focus on the roles played by the state security agencies through which the legitimate monopoly of violence is operationalised. This strategy will allow for a deeper debate on the political priorities which drive and frame security issues, and will contribute to our understanding of the repercussions of the involvement of the security agencies in responding to a public health issue, framed as pertaining to the security field. 

External Security Forces Responses 

We have briefly explored the evolution of the security arena towards a much more complex configuration in recent decades. A growing number of actors, an array of ambiguous and shifting threats and a wider configuration of conflicts compose a difficult environment. In this same line, security agencies also suffer unorthodox shifts (Bigo, 2000; Brandão, 2015; Gebhard & Norheim-Martinsen, 2011). A clear division of security spheres (internal/external) entails a sharp division of labour between security bodies (Fierke, 2007). Nowadays, however, we witness the involvement of the military in domestic conflicts in ways alike to warfare, deployed by external security agencies who address the internalisation of typically external phenomena. On the other hand, the internationalisation of domestic security priorities leads to a large array of civilian external missions, where police and domestic intelligence and border services play a fundamental key (Bigo, 2000; Brandão, 2015).

In the context of the internal/external security nexus, which points to the increasing indissociability between these two fields, a definition of internal security as the “protection of national territory against internal threats by using traditional means” (Bigo, 2000 p. 322) is no longer effective. In consequence, innovative answers to new and ambiguous threats leads to the internalisation of transnational phenomena, exemplified by the current pandemic. As previously noted, external security forces are a useful resource to diminish the virus’ terrible impact.

Africom (2020). Source

On the other hand, critical scholars question the legitimacy and coherence of deploying security measures to non-traditional security phenomena (Booth, 2007). The first obvious argument is that it is not possible to tackle the virus through pure military force (McSweeney, 2004). On the other hand, there are also inherent risks deriving from securitising and subsequently militarising civilian topics (Dalby apud McSweeney, 2004; Fierke, 2007). The active portrayal of a certain issue, such as COVID-19, as an active urgent matter in the security agenda leads to calls for “urgent”, “abnormal” actions. Such urgent actions go through a process of normalisation, thus opening the way for potential consecutive breaches of fundamental human rights standards. 

Media outlets have documented cases of security agencies brutality against civilians. This dynamic also bring to life the indissociable relationship between security and politics, as states are now taking advantage of the framing of public health issues as a security crisis to apply traditional military solutions. Armed forces take on supporting roles not only for the health bodies directly targeting the pandemic, but also to internal security agencies who currently carry repressive policies designed to fit authoritarian and violent political objectives. Considering the derivative nature of security, the inherently dependence of security agencies, and their constructed role according to the political views of the actors involved, it is important to stress once more that external security forces may be a valuable part in the strategy for tackling the pandemic. Indian external security agencies, for example, have also been mobilised to building health care facilities, such as hospitals in the region of Kashmir and Jamil (PTI, 2020). 

Conversely, they may also become the state’s armed wing in enforcing brutal domestic measures. On the other side of the spectrum, Indian armed forces took the pandemic to double down on the pre-existent crushing security measures (Mir, 2020). Tensions have been aggravated in the region during April 2020, as attacks took place and Indian armed forces set up artillery weapons in Kashmiri villages. 5 Rwandan soldiers have been arrested after being accused of brutalising, raping and killing civilians during the country’s lockdown. South African civil society has already risen up to condemn the army, along with the police, for using “violence, excessive force, torture and assault” when enforcing lockdown measures. Peru, on the other hand, has recently passed a law which has been described by Amnesty International Americas Director as “sending a message of impunity for abuses committed by security forces”.

Ministerio de la Defensa de Perú (2018). Source

In parallel, external security forces such as the army may offer important resources, organisational and logistical capabilities, experience and knowledge on crisis management and high-quality medical facilities (ISSAT, 2020; WOLA, 2020). According to ongoing experiences, the militarisation of the pandemic in the simple sense of involving armed forces may be a productive strategy. That is, if these organs who in principle act beyond the State’s territorial boundaries act under the ultimate control of civilian bodies, and provided they respect principles of legality, necessity, proportionality, and precaution (OHCHR, 2020). Many international actors have thus turned to the military to provide critical resources to a militarised pandemic response (Mani, 2020; EUROMIL, 2020).

This point illustrates the inherently derivative nature of security in that it directly responds to dominant political interests. Moreover, it comes to show that this no longer binary categorisation of security spheres and agencies may ultimately call into play emergency measures and responses. In turn, these measures are highly framed by the securitisation of the pandemic and are acted upon by security forces, distorting checks and balances and harming human rights.

References

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Homo Economicus? - Why Economists Need to Revise Their Most Basic Assumption

In 1982, a group of economists conducted a famous experiment, the ultimatum game. In its simplest form, the experiment employs two subjects, which we will call A and B. Person A receives a certain amount of money and has then to offer splitting it with person B. Person A is free to offer person B any amount of money out of the initial sum, which person B is free to accept or decline. If the offer is declined by person B, the two people get nothing. The results of the experiment showed that the lower the offered sum to person B was, the more likely they are to decline the offer. This may sound sensible to most people but it contradicts the assumptions economists have long held. If person B was a rational actor, any offer would make them strictly better off or at least indifferent. Furthermore, if person A was a rational actor too, they would always propose keeping the entire sum. However, when this experiment is conducted, the most successful strategy for person A turns out to be offering a split close to half-and-half. This proposal is the one most likely to be accepted by person B, and thus, the most potentially profitable for A.

Zach Weinersmith (2014) (source)

This experiment challenges the most basic assumption of mainstream economics, namely, that humans are self-seeking rational beings. This opens up notions foreign to the field, such as fairness, socialization or pure irrationality. However, economics were not always like this. From Keyne’s animal spirits to the nowadays despised adaptative expectations, there was a time in which economists seemed to have their feet more firmly on the ground than today. Today’s economics are, to a great extent, the result of taking the self-seeking rational human assumption to the extreme. Through this article we will examine how human irrationality is a real force shaping the economy, explore the dangers of transforming the homo economicus into dogma, and propose a more down-to-earth approach to economics. Although the topic can be analyzed from many different perspectives we will focus here on the issue of economic downturns and the responses to them, something that seems fairly relevant given the current situation of the world economy.

Rationality in Crisis

Although it is clear that the current recession has not been due to a lack of rationality, lots of previous crises do. Furthermore, there is an important and often overlooked factor present in all crises that directly challenges the homo economicus position. Let us have a look first at some irrational forces that continuously threaten economic stability, what Keynes called animal spirits. He put it this way back in the 1936:

“[…] a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities” — Keynes, 1997.

Animal spirits are those forces that drive humans to take irrational decisions and that, very often, lead them into disaster. These spirits are nothing more than human emotions, ethics or even lack of thinking. A common denominator to most financial crises is what is called optimism bias. Optimism bias leads people to be excessively optimistic about their beliefs of the current and future trend of the economy. By overemphasizing positive information and overlooking warning sings, it leads us to take irrational decisions (Akerlof, Shiller, 2009). This is often reinforced by pure social pressure and confirmation bias, that molds our beliefs and perceptions in a manner consistent with the socially accepted ones and makes us reject, and even despise, the outcasts. For example, the overemphasis on the data that showed an apparently unstoppable rise in real estate prices and the dismissal of the voices that were warning of a housing bubble, led the world in 2008 to a tremendous recession. The “this-time-is-different” syndrome usually accompanies the optimism bias. Irrationally, by laying aside common-sense and well-founded knowledge, we are led to taking stupid decisions. Still with the 2008 example, by dismissing the common-sense of “what goes up must come down” and the well-founded economic notion that you cannot have high returns and zero risk at the same time, a housing and financial bubble was created.

New York Stock Exchange Market (source)

Forces foreign to the homo economicus realm play a role even after the fire breaks out. As Nobel Prize-winners Akerlof and Shiller have pointed out, narratives are of the uttermost importance (Ibid). A story telling that the economy has been severely hit is a powerful force that leads to an irrational loss of confidence, ultimately self-fulfilling the narrative. Severity is often overestimated, which leads people to restrain consumption and investment and, in turn, makes that severity true (Ibid). 

As a common and painful feature of all recessions, unemployment is something to look at attentively. Although this phenomenon is so common that we all now take it for granted, its existence undermines important economic assumptions about the functioning of the markets. The labor market, as any market, supposedly equates demand and supply through a price that clears it. That is, enterprises demand labor, workers offer it and a wage ensures that at the end of the day there are no vacant posts and no unemployed workers. This is clearly not the case. A rise in unemployment during a recession evidences one thing: labor markets are not functioning “properly”. If markets were perfect, they would simply adjust through changes in wages (downwards evidently) in order to equate the new supply and demand. The truth is, markets suffer of wage rigidity, wages do not react well to changes and remain inefficiently high, thus provoking unemployment. Empirical work shows that wage rigidity is not due to minimum wages or laws, at least not in the majority of cases (Snowdon, Vane & Wynarczyk, 1994). Governments are normally sensible enough to relax labor regulation in times of crisis. A very anti-homo economicus notion, fairness, could be behind a lot of this rigidity. It is important to acknowledge that people have a need to feel fairly treated and that wages are the primary signal through which workers evaluate the fairness of their relationship with the employer. By comparing their wages to others, in and out of the firm, workers adjust their work effort following the “fair day’s work for a fair day’s pay” premise (Akerlof, Yellen, 1990). Enterprises have then a reason to pay wages above the efficient one, since the productivity of its workers and their success in acquiring labor depend on the wages being deemed as fair. There exist other theories, such as the refusal of unemployed workers to offer their workforce at a price that could hinder the position of their employed pairs (Snowdon, Vane & Wynarczyk, 1994). 

It is clear that important forces deviating from the homo-economicus assumption play very relevant roles in provoking malfunctions in financial and labor markets that can ultimately lead to painful recessions. From over-optimism to fairness notions, passing through collective narratives; animal spirits are more material than their name could suggest. Let is examine the painful consequences of thinking that these very real spirits do not exist.

The Dangerous Consequences of Rational Expectations

In November 2008, Queen Elizabeth II asked why almost no economist had been able to predict the financial crisis of that same year. The answer has probably something to do with an inherently flawed assumption: rational expectations. In fact, it was Shiller, one of the few economists who saw a major recession coming, and he did so precisely by moving away from it and by taking into account the possibility of irrational forces shaping the fate of the global economy. Some rational expectations hooligans, incapable of envisaging unemployment as something sensible within their models, went as far as stating that unemployment cannot exist and that what we see as unemployment is nothing more than a voluntary retreat from the labor market. This goes against common sense and, although the existence of unemployment contradicts the very foundations of markets, there are more sensible answers out there, as explained before. 

Among the most salient contributions of neoclassicist economists to mainstream economics is the concept of rational expectations. In economics, expectations are informed predictions that economic agents make about future trends and events. For example, thinking that next month prices are going to be higher or that the economy will continue growing are expectations. Expectations are of the uttermost importance: thinking that prices will rise could make agents change their portfolio structure in order to increase their share of non-monetary assets, or thinking that growth will be positive will make entrepreneurs decide to invest or hire more workers. Traditionally, the clumsy adaptative expectations were the ones thought to be more realistic. They envisage agents as doing their predictions based on past events. For example, since prices this month increased, next month they should be higher too; or since the economy was growing this month, it should continue doing so the next.

However, a group of economists in the 1970s and 1980s challenged adaptative expectations. Reputed names, such as Robert Barro or Robert Lucas, proposed a different approach to dealing with expectations (Ibid). If humans are rational beings, they argued, then the way they form expectations should be rational too. Expecting something to be as it was in the past is irrational, since things can and do change. As a result, rational expectations were born. This line of thought assumes that agents’ expectations will be formed through the most rational use of all publicly available information and that their expectations will, on average, coincide with reality. Rational expectations soon became mainstream, how could they not? If agents are rational then their expectations must be rational too. As Barro pointed out:

 “One of the cleverest features of the rational expectation revolution was the application of the term “rational”. Thereby, the opponents of this approach were forced into the defensive position of either being irrational or of modelling others as irrational, neither of which are comfortable positions for an economist” (Ibid). 

But, while rational expectations are theoretically sound, they do not seem very realistic. It is not very sensible to think that the owner of the bakery from which you buy bread is reading the last IMF estimations about the future trends of the global economy to decide if he should invest in another oven. Even if he did, it is difficult to imagine that he has a perfect model of how the economy works in his mind when not even Nobel Prize economists agree on how economy actually works. How could your baker know how the trend of the global economy is going to affect his investment while the IMF is recurrently incapable of estimating how this or that sector is going to react? 

Believing in rational expectations has important consequences in the real world. First of all, they fail to take into account the very real possibility, as we have seen, of recessions emerging out of irrational decisions due to emotions, ethics or simple clumsiness. Furthermore, they imply that economic policies are useless. Take a look at fiscal policy for example. Imagine the economy is in a downturn, with all the consequences that this has on people’s lives, and that the government decides to lower taxes or raise public expenditure through an emission of public debt. Since this debt will eventually have to be paid back, people will ultimately pay it either through an increase in taxes or a reduction of public services. If rational expectations were at play, individuals, anticipating this, would save in order to pay for the future burden without increasing consumption. This is called the Ricardian Equivalence and, at the end, affirms that fiscal policy is pointless. This is of course not true, fiscal policy does usually work. Continuing with our recession, imagine that the government decides to use monetary policy instead. By increasing the growth rate of money, the government expects a shift of savings into capital as a result of the change in the relative rate of return. Nevertheless, if expectations were rational, the only thing that would happen would be an increase in the nominal rate of return with no real effect on the structure of savings. This is called the Fisher Effect and entails that monetary policy is pointless. This is clearly not the case; monetary policy does work most times. By believing in rational expectations we fall into an unrealistic complacency that does much harm to a lot of people whose suffering could be relieved. 

The European Central Bank (source)

A more Sensible Assumption about Human Nature

The aim of this article is not to say that human beings are always irrational. They actually behave like true homo economicus when it comes to their economic decisions most of the time. But assuming that this is always the case and, more dangerously, taking it to the extreme, jeopardizes both the discipline and our responsiveness in times of crisis. Humans sometimes depart from the self-seeking rationality assumption. In some cases, it causes no major trouble, such as in our experiment example, in others the consequences can be dire, such as in the creation of financial bubbles. It is important to be aware of this and employ mechanisms and measures that can prevent the disaster. Furthermore, expanding the assumption to include all aspects of the discipline might be theoretically sound but it is utterly unrealistic. As we have seen, believing in rational expectations is turning the homo economicus into dogma, which can have painful consequences. Mainstream economics needs to take into account the critiques made and start considering that humans might not be as rational as they are thought to be. 

References

Akerlof, G.A. & Yellen, J.L. 1990, "The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 105, no. 2, pp. 255-283.

Akerlof, G.A. & Shiller, R.J. 2009, Animal Spirits, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.

Greenspan, A. 2013, Never Saw It Coming: Why the Financial Crisis Took Economists by Surprise, Council on Foreign Relations.

Keynes, J.M. 1997, The general theory of employment, interest and money, Prometheus Books, Amherst.

Snowdon, B., Vane, H. & Wynarczyk, P. 1994, A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics, Edward Elgar Publishing, Vermont.

Edited by Hiba Arrame

COVID-19 THE ECONOMIC COST: A Preview of the Current Situation

The COVID-19 virus has dominated the international news and affected our lives. Currently, the world's policies are busy protecting humanity against this virus, by taking many measures that will decrease the pervasion of the virus, including media and social media to spread awareness about the danger humanity is exposed to due to this pandemic.

After declaring it a pandemic by the World Health Organization, each country in the world has become officially isolated, so they were in the obligation to declare the situation of health emergency by avoiding circulation between cities, closing all public utilities, and restricting people's circulation by lock-down or social distancing (quarantine) until further notice.

The charts below show daily and total case trends. Data was added, and the charts were updated as of March 30th, 2020 (source)

Source

"Total Cases" = total cumulative count (737,577). This figure therefore includes deaths and recovered or discharged patients (cases with an outcome) (source)

The data collected so far on how people are getting infected and how the epidemics is involving are unreliable.  

There are three parameters to understand the situation in order to assess the magnitude of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus:

• Transmission Rate (Ro) - number of newly infected people from a single case

• Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - percentage of cases that result in death

• Determining whether asymptomatic transmission is possible

The Economic Impact

The coronavirus outbreak, which originated in China, has infected more than 200 000 people; its spread has left businesses around the globe, counting losses.

It is too early to talk about an economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but we can evaluate the impact of the virus on economy so far. 

"This virus is as economically contagious as it’s medically contagious," said Richard Baldwin, a professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute of Geneva. 

It is considered as phenomena for the manufacturing sector in most high economies: Supply chain disruptions overall, and a decline in the demand on cars, electronics and many other manufactured goods as people take a step back and observe the turnout of the crisis.

A Nervous Stock Market

It is certain that we cannot consider the state of the stock market as a big economic factor, but it could be a sign that the investments in stock exchange will, surely, be affected, due to the virus, during the upcoming years. 

The same applies to the travel and tourism industries, which have been pounded by the outbreak, by the cancellations of all events that regroup more than 50 persons, and cessation of all the trips around the World. 

We cannot ignore the fight of oil production between Saudi Arabia and Russia that caused a decline in oil prices, and enhanced fears of a broader slow down.

Businesses are already taking a hit, but how bad it gets depends on how the virus lasts… 

Strong companies like Nike and Apple are not going to be ruled out by this virus, "those are two companies that manufacture a significant amount of their products in China" - Randy Frederick vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles SCHWAB. 

As considered, all businesses relying on China as part of their supply chains, and having big retail presences within the country, face the phenomena. 

"I don’t think the Amazon platform has seen such a massive amount of inventory problems as we are about to see" reported the World Street Journal in February. 

Then there are the airlines, which some experts say could lose as much as 100 Billion Dollars, and all the other businesses related to tourism as hotels, casinos, tour companies and more…

The question now is about whether this situation is going to lead the world through a global recession. 

Everybody wants to know if this virus is going to cause a global crisis or not, the short answer is that it could. 

"A recession is generally defined as a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated area, it had been typically recognized as two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators like a rise in unemployment" - Investopedia

What is happening in China, being the Octopus of the world's economy, will heavily affect the rest of the economies, the Eurozone countries are definitely simulating, their GDPs only increased by 0.1% by the end of last year, any unexpected movement may push them to a negative growth.

The United states being one of the strongest economies of the world, its GDP grew 2.1% in the last fourth quarter, so it could be more protected comparing with the rest of countries. 

The New COVID-19 detonation has definitely exposed the weakness of companies, especially those that rely heavily on china regarding their supply chains and manufacturing.

This may engender companies to cut some of their dependence on China, and start to diversify supply chains to protect against major crisis that impact one country more than another. 

Moreover, this virus is a good reminder for companies that are not relying on China, to start looking for other alternatives regarding their economies, because no one knows where or when the next pandemic might happen.

References:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/should-you-self-isolate-self-quarantine-or-self-monitor/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21871188

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited by Hiba Arrame

In the Name of God: How Israelis, Palestinians and Americans Transformed the Arab-Israeli Conflict into a Religious Struggle

The Arab-Israeli conflict, primarily a dispute over the control of land, has passed from being framed in nationalistic terms by both Arabs and Israelis and in more or less strategic terms by the US; to being understood as a religious conflict, underpinned by a religious shift in the mindset of its parties, including America. Israel’s religious radicalization gained momentum during the Oslo negotiations, crystallizing with the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin, and continuing today, notably under the harsh policies of Benyamin Netanyahu. The rise of Palestinian political Islam can be traced back to the general “Islamic Resurgence” of the 70s, that swept all over the Muslim world, though it has become more evident in the late 20th and early 21st Centuries. In America, the impact of Evangelical Christian ideas on US foreign policy began under the presidency of George W. Bush but reached its peak of influence under the Trump Administration.

Yitzhak Rabin, Yasser Arafat and Bill Clinton at the Oslo Accords signing ceremony, 1993 (source)

Israel’s religious right-wing has been growing in size and makes up an important part of Netanyahu’s government. During the last decades, secularist-nationalist extreme right has been losing ground to a more religious kind of far right, with terrorist attacks, especially in the occupied territories, multiplying. This trend was painfully evident in 1995, when ultra-orthodox media held symposiums on the question of whether Yitzhak Rabin should be executed, and when fundamentalist rabbis condemned the Prime Minister and declared it legitimate to assassinate him, leading to the consequences that we all know. From its part, Islamist fundamentalism has seen its public support and reconnaissance grow dramatically during the 21st Century, especially at difficult times. For example, Palestinians’ support for groups like Hamas or Islamic Jihad increased by more than 50% during the so-called Al-Aqsa Intifada. Meanwhile, in the United States, Evangelical Christians have gained important leverage in the design of US foreign policy, particularly in what concerns the Arab-Israeli conflict. The group Christians United for Israel (CUFI) founded in 2006 and that claims more than four million members, has an important influence in Trump’s decisions. When the new American embassy in Jerusalem was inaugurated, an extremist pastor called Robert Jeffress thanked God for “having given us a president who boldly stands on the right side of history, but more importantly, stands on the right side of You, of God, when it comes to Israel”.

The Battle for the Soul of Israel

Although right-wing extremism has always been part of the country’s political landscape, the new far right is underpinned by a religious fundamentalist ideology, in contraposition to the traditionally nationalist right. Modern Israel was created by a group of secular socialists led by David Ben-Gurion, that wanted to build a more or less secular and liberal state for the Hebrew nation after the horrors of the Holocaust. This idea was shattered after the Yom Kippur war in 1973. Although Israel ultimately won the war, losses were huge, and the massive intelligence failure destroyed the credibility of traditional Labor policies. Menachem Begin won the next elections, inflicting a painful defeat to the Labor party, and forged an alliance with Israel’s religious parties, which demanded important concessions to the ultra-orthodox. This sowed the seeds for fundamentalist right-wing extremism. The focus of right-wing parties started to swing from land and security to the transformation of Israel’s population into a homogeneous Jewish society. 

The Arab-Israeli conflict was not regarded as a religious one until the 1980s, a time when Israel’s nationalistic far right turned into a religious one. The transformation of the conflict into a sacred battle through the vilification of Palestinians legitimized violence against civilians. These new right-wing parties understand democracy as an anomaly that will eventually give place to a truly Jewish state, and have ultraconservative values at the backbone of their ideology. They offer orthodox Judaism as an alternative to secular and democratic Zionism.

These ideas seem to be gaining support. In 2016, a Pew public opinion survey found that almost 80% of Jewish Israelis support “preferential treatment” for Jews, this is, full rights for Jews and discrimination and suspicion for gentiles. At the same time, the vast majority of Israelis are proud of having a stable and functioning democracy. However, the increased radicalization of Israeli politics has driven the country to a crossroad, if the criterion of inclusion is not based on citizenship but rather on religious affiliation, the same concept of democracy is undermined. Since one of the pillars of democracy is the equality of all citizens before the law, any law that violates this principle would be, by definition, antidemocratic. Thus, religious right-wing parties are right, it is not possible to live in a Jewish democratic state, Israelis must be aware that right-wing extremism not only harms Palestinians, but also undermines the democracy they are so proud of. 

The Islamic Alternative

The rise of Islamic fundamentalism is, of course, nothing exclusively Palestinian. This “Islamic Resurgence” can be traced back to the 1970s, and, even though it swept with force most of the Muslim World, the Arab-Israeli conflict is at its center, at least if we are to explore its causes. After the decolonization of the Middle East, Arab nationalism emerged as the new way to make politics in the region. Fiercely anti-Israeli and nationalist, the Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser, personified the ideals of this doctrine. Nasser rose to power through a coup d’état against King Farouk, and gained the respect of Arabs across the region, feeding in the popular resentment produced by the defeat of the War of 1949 and the dire economic conditions. 

Palestinian children greeting Hamas fighters in Gaza (source)

However, Nasser was incapable of facing Israel, suffering humiliating defeats and losing important swaths of territory. This was not solely an Egyptian affair, Arab nationalism seemed to be failing everywhere, and the Palestinian cause was losing attraction. Furthermore, the socialist economic mismanagement of Arab governments did not improve people’s economic conditions, but rather deteriorated them. Amid all of this, the feeling that the current political, socioeconomic and cultural systems were a failure spread among the population, and political Islam, underpinned by the thinking of Qotb and Maududi, started to seem like a self-sufficient ideology for the state and society, a viable alternative to nationalism. The year 1973 is paradoxical, while nationalists were again defeated at the Yom Kippur war, the conservative gulf monarchies inflicted great pain to Western economies without even having to use a single soldier, at the same time their GDPs boomed. Political Islam finally crystallized in 1979, when Afghan mujahidin were able to stop the Soviet Empire’s advance, an Islamic revolution triumphed in Iran and Anwar Sadat, Nasser’s successor, signed a peace treaty with Israel, what was seen as the final claudication of Arab nationalism. 

The Islamic upheaval of the Palestinian political landscape took a little bit more to be evident, mainly because the PLO, under the direction of Yasser Arafat, distanced itself from Arab nationalism in the late 1960s. However, 1993’s historic handshake between Yitzhak Rabin and the Palestinian leader in the framework of the Oslo Accords was considered to many a betrayal to the Palestinian cause. Furthermore, the continuous victories or at least stalemates of Hizballah against Israel during the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s galvanized the idea of political Islam as a viable way of defending Palestine. At the same time, Islamic organizations like Hamas provided social and economic relief to an agonizing population while the Palestinian Authority’s capacity to provide basic services was greatly reduced. During the first years of the 21st Century the Palestinian political front finally imploded, a generational breakdown became evident between the old PLO/PA cadres that refused to participate in the Intifada, and the young Islamists. The Palestinian Authority rapidly lost legitimacy at home and abroad, weakened by its inaction against Israeli attacks and plagued with corruption; at the same time that groups like Hamas or Hizballah gained widespread support.

America’s Prophetic Duty

The United States’ approach to deal with the Arab-Israeli conflict has historically been a rational and strategic one, aimed to protect American interests in the Middle East and the stability of the region through a peaceful solution to the conflict. Proofs of this are the numerous attempts, some successful others not, to reduce tensions and foster communication among the parties involved. It could not have been possible for Egypt to get back the Sinai or for Israel to get its right to exist recognized by the PLO, without the American involvement. 

It is true that the United States has always had a preference for Israel, and that the generosity upon which is based their relationship is not comparable with the shallower aid that Palestine receives. However, George W. Bush and, more notably, Donald Trump, have adopted an increasingly pro-Israeli rhetoric and have undermined their relations with the Palestinian people. The final materializations of this shift are the decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and thus recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and Kushner’s “Deal of the Century” that does everything to foster Israeli interests and nothing to protect Palestinian ones.

A prayer at an Evangelicals for Trump campaign event (source)

This shift is better understood if we have a look at the United States political map. More than a quarter of all eligible voters in America are white Evangelical Christians. This makes them a juicy base of electoral support to have, and the Republican Party has taken the lead. More than 80% of white Evangelical Christians voted for Trump, and the President has been eager to foster Evangelical objectives through his policies. Evangelical Christians believe that the Bible is some sort of prophetic roadmap that ends with the Day of Judgement and the second coming to Earth of Jesus Christ. In this day, the faithful will go the heaven and the sinners to hell. The prophecy also talks about an important event for the analyzed conflict: the second coming of Jesus Christ will be precluded by the return of the Jews to the land of Israel. Thus, the simple existence of Israel is seen by many Evangelical Christians as the sign that confirms the prophecy, and, for them, if the United States wants to be in the right side of history, it must do everything in its hands to protect Israel and defeat its enemies. This could also explain the harsh measures that Trump has undertaken against Iran, notably, since another passage of the Bible taken literally by Evangelicals, Esther’s Book, talks about a plot by the King of Persia (modern day Iran) to destroy the Jews. Furthermore, it is important to have in mind that two of the most powerful men in designing US foreign policy, State Secretary Mike Pompeo and Vice-president Mike Pence, identify themselves as Evangelical Christians. 

The Wrong Road

Framing the conflict in religious terms does nothing to solve the problem but rather drives it to a dead end. If the Palestinian efforts continue to be led by intransigent ecstatic groups that understand the struggle as a zero-sum game in which the ends always justify the means, the Israeli state continues its shift towards maximalist policies entrenched by radical conceptions about the fate of the nation, and the US policy continues to be driven by some sort of prophetic responsibility, the conflict will turn into an even bitterer rivalry than it is today. Islamic terrorism will not weaken the Israeli state, but rather provoke more severe responses. Israel’s settlement and homogenization policies will not make the nation safer, but rather create an environment of constant insecurity embedded in an apartheid system deeply antidemocratic. Trump’s “Deal of the Century” will not solve the parties’ differences, but rather exacerbate violence in an already turbulent region. By understanding the conflict as a religious struggle, all factions have transformed it into a cosmic battle in which the opponent is nothing short of a demon that must be destroyed. Israel, Palestine and America are driving themselves to the antipodes of a peaceful settlement, the looming shadow of the Clash of Civilizations seems closer than ever. If the parties are not able to moderate themselves, violence, hatred and pain will continue to be their daily bread for a long time. 

References:

1. Benn, A. 2016, "The End of the Old Israel", Foreign Affairs;

2. Hanauer, L.S. 1995, "The Path to Redemption: Fundamentalist Judaism, Territory, and Jewish Settler Violence in the West Bank", Studies in Conflict & Terrorism;

3. Hernández Jiménez, A., B. Culla, J. & Bermejo García, R. 2012, "Las raíces del Estado de Israel y su evolución", Historia del Estado de Israel, 2012;

4. Keim, M. 2011, "Here and Back Again: US National Security Interests in the Arab/Israeli Conflict", Pepperdine Policy Review;

5. Rouhana, N.N. 2006, "Jewish and Democratic? The Price of a National Self-Deception", Journal of Palestine Studies;

6. Roy, S. 2003, "Hamas and the transformation(s) of political Islam in Palestine ", Current History;

7. Scheltens, L. & Parvaneh, D. 2020, Feb 12, How a Bible prophecy shapes Trump’s foreign policy;

8. Shikaki, K. 2004, "The Future of Palestine", Foreign Affairs.

Edited by Hiba Arrame

China’s Engagement in Africa: A Realist Perspective

Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, China has increasingly taken a more active role in world affairs. One of the main faces of this active engagement is China’s policy towards Africa. To better understand the driving elements of China’s involvement in Africa, we should take a closer look at the Realism theory. States are rational actors and adopt an economic and political perspective based on national interest. From this point on, we can argue that China, being an emergent global economic and political power, acts in Africa to ensure survival thus gaining power and influence. China’s operations through its policy in Africa are to meet four key national interests.

FOCAC summit (source)

Political Interests

China pursues African countries support for the one-China policy in order to eliminate Taiwan's diplomatic presence on the continent. African countries played a significant role in helping the PRC to retrieve its seat in the United Nations as legitimate government, representing the Chinese people in 1971. Besides, African Countries helped China prevent a statement from the UN council on human rights criticizing China over the Tibet issue in 2008, just before the beginning of the Beijing Summer Olympics. China seeks Africa’s support in multilateral organizations and forums to achieve its global agendas, given the fact that African countries represent a significant voting capacity of 54 African states, which equals more than the quarter of the UN members. (1)

Economic Interests

Being a continent rich on natural resources makes Africa a source of commodities for China. It needs African countries to secure stable deliveries of oil and raw material to sustain its economic growth. Additionally, Africa with its large population represents a consuming market of Chinese goods and services. On the flip side, Africa’s lack of infrastructure makes it a fertile ground for Chinese foreign investment. China adopts an approach in its investment in African infrastructure, which consists of carrying out infrastructure projects in return for commodities. Additionally, Chinese companies also take advantage of African market potential and its cheap labour force in order to relocate their activities to Africa and produce at a lower cost. Furthermore, Africa represents a core element in the Chinese belt and road initiative. 

Security Interests 

In the light of growing Chinese involvement in Africa through its investments and personnel presence on the continent, China has become exposed to several security challenges such as political instability, terrorism, organized crime and piracy in the Horn of Africa. (2) The number of Chinese living and working in Africa reached 1 million in 2016. (3) China has played an increasing role in preserving stability and tackling security issues in Africa. China provided 100 million dollars in 2015 aiming to reinforce the African union peace and security structures.” (4) Additionally, China established a military base in Djibouti in order to defend Chinese security interests in the region. Besides, this base aims to fight piracy in the Horn of Africa, which affects negatively the international maritime navigation.

China's military base in Djibouti (source)

Ideological Interests 

In the early 1950s and 1960s during the Mao Zedong era, ideology constituted an essential determinant in China’s policy towards African countries. China sought to be the leader of the developing world, where African countries represented a core element. China wanted to create a bloc with African countries to face hegemony and imperialism, notably knowing that China and African countries shared a history of struggle against western colonialism. This policy was of an enormous aid to African countries despite China's economic difficulties at that time. After 1979, China progressively de-ideologized its policy towards Africa. It established relations with all African countries that support the one-China policy.

Nevertheless, China has started applying ideology differently. The Chinese communist party seeks to gain legitimacy through transferring its development model to Africa. This model, which merges economic development with authoritarianism, has proved to be successful in China. For this reason, China tries to convince African countries that political stability and economic development should be prioritized over democracy. The Chinese model has gained much attractiveness among African countries.

In conclusion, China's presence in Africa has drawn much controversy within the academic community and centers of power because of its specific features and guiding principles. Some experts, in particular in the west, perceive China as a purely realistic country, seeking to achieve its own political, economic and ideological interests, hence imposing hegemony in Africa. Nevertheless, some see China particularly in Africa as a development partner on an equal basis with African nations, notably knowing that China adopts a policy of non-interference in inner affairs of African countries. In addition, it does not attach any political conditionality to loans and economic assistance to Africa in contrast to western countries.  This topic represents an opportunity for further academic research in order to deeply understand the nature and driving elements of Chinese actorness in Africa.

Edited by Nataliya Napetova

Is the World Becoming More Peaceful?

It might come up as a strange question for some people, who see a conflictual world on television, newspapers, websites and especially social media, which exposes different types of conflicts worldwide. How could we speak about a peaceful world while the hashtag #WorldWarThree is trending on social media, after the tension between Washington and Tehran following the US airstrike which killed General Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian major general, who had been the architect of Iranian military interventions in the Middle East.

According to statistics and some analysis, there is a significant military advantage of the United States over Iran, thus being difficult to compare. Aware of that, the Iranian regime would not prefer to engage in a direct war with the US army. This fact was confirmed by the mild Iranian reaction to the US killing Soleimani, furthermore the American troops were informed hours before the attack.

But the people, who are afraid of a next world war, don’t rely on Iranian power and its capability to face USA, they have fear of whoever stands behind Iran, mainly Russia, and China on a second level. 

Insecure Region in the Safest World

There is a common theory that the world is becoming safer and more peaceful than ever, which is not a daydream. Data shows that it is indeed a fact. Since the World War II there are fewer conflicts and less people die in war than before (refer to figure 1 and figure 2 below). 

Figure 1: Deaths caused by war, annual statistics by UCDP/PRIO since 1946

Meanwhile war is getting away from different regions, such as Europe, America, Asia, Oceania, and even Africa. There is one specific region where war conflicts and violence are increasing; the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, which remained the world’s least peaceful region. 

Beside the Arab-Israeli conflict, one of the oldest conflicts, which causes disputes among the Arab countries in 1956, 1967, 1973 and 2006 and many tensions since Israel’s existence. The region knew many other conflicts: Iraq against Iran in 1980, Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, followed by the coalition operation in to expel the occupying Iraqi forces from Kuwait, the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and a series of continuous civil wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen, following to the Arab spring started in Tunisia in 2010.

Figure 2: Deaths caused by war, annually and divided by world region (UCDP/PRIO)

Why is this Region so Insecure?

Unlike many other regions in the world, which are getting more and more peaceful, the MENA region is still suffering from wars, conflicts and insecurity. This trend leads us to ask the question “Why?”…

War for oil, foreign intervention, ethnic and religious differences are indeed all root causes, leading to instability and insecurity of this region. But there is also another important factor, which can explain all other ones - non-democracy.

There is enough evidence to conclude that democracy does cause peace at least between democracies, that the observed correlation between democracy and peace is not invalid.

Global democracy could provide a solid foundation for global peace. The basic principles of this concept had been argued as early as the 1700s in the works of philosopher Immanuel Kant and political theorist Thomas Paine.

Figure 3: Democracies vs. autocracies chart (Varieties of Democracy Project, 2019)

While the number of democracies is increasing and autocracies are decreasing (figure 3), the MENA region is still having a  majority of authoritarian regimes, or sometimes hybrid ones, but only a few of them are democracies (refer to figure 4),  

Figure 4: World map presenting democracies (The Economist Intelligence Unit)

Conclusion

To sum up, we can say that the world is getting more peaceful because it is getting more democratic. There is a connection between democracy and peace. 

To end years of wars and conflicts, the MENA region needs a real democracy, but not the democracy brought up by tanks, like that one promised at the Iraqi invasion in 2003, which caused chaos not only in Iraq but also in other countries like Syria. A democracy that comes from people’s mentality of the region.

While Western countries must support democratization process in Arab countries, as they did after the "Fall of the Berlin Wall", they must neither support dictatorships nor intervene militarily in this region.

Edited by Nataliya Napetova

New Year’s Eve. Silvester and Firework: What I Realised This Year

A new year, a new start, and a new beginning. The last night of the year and the first day of the year is a celebration night for the western community. The traditions differ but everybody is celebrating the evening, mostly with good food, family or friends and lots of alcohol. 

Since I started studying CSR, my point of view changed on a lot of things, like waste management, recycling or plastic. Some of them changed to the better, while I started questioning others. So it is for Silvester (as we call New Year’s Eve in Germany). What is it at this night that we have to harm our environment so badly? Because this year, I still celebrated Silvester with my family and friends, good food –and for some with alcohol, but I skipped on the fireworks and to be honest – I did not miss it.  

Source

But first of all, let me explain a bit why I consider Silvester’s Fireworks to be a burden for our planet:
The most obvious reason is the waste produced by it. Only this year in Munich we had about 60 tonnes of garbage collected from the streets after New Year’s Eve. At one of our monuments, they started cleaning at 0:30am in order to get the streets ready by 3am. There was a huge amount of waste that is not recyclable, things like magnesium or coal.

Coal is the next reason against firework. If you just imagine the discussions about resources and how they will have an end, it seems ironic to use one of them for private fireworks during one night. And the same goes for paper, carton or wood. There is no fair-trade or environmentally friendly version of fireworks, which also shows how much harm it does. 

But not only has the environment suffered because of Silvester’s Fireworks, animals do as well. If you have a dog, a cat or some other animal, you may have observed how they hide inside the house starting midday of the 31/12, and how confused and easily scared they are after this spectacle, not even mentioning the night itself. Well, just imagine how loud we sense the fireworks and now think about the animals which are not only more sensible but for sure do not know what that means. 

So, after I introduced the environment and animal types of harm let me come to a point which may be the most shocking for some of you. It does harm us. I took my friend to the bus station at 2am in the morning and we felt like we saw the particulates in the air. According to measurements the exposure to it at Silvester is about 5 times higher than normal. In which respect particulates harm our health and starting from which number is not clear, but experts are sure it does harm us. 

And not only indirectly, fireworks cause  more dangers. Some get fired into houses, some fall and fire on the street. Firework always involves fire, and this is dangerous. As dangerous, that it is forbidden in the city centre of Munich. 

Thinking about all this I felt quite bad about celebrating Silvester this way and for the first time did not use firework or similar things. When the clock turned midnight, my friend and I  stayed in and talked late into the night, going to the balcony looking at each other and debating about the environment. My little cousin furthermore was scared as well, which shows that children may like the colour but do not really need the private fireworks. It may even scare them. But the good part is that it seems to get less and the discussion about it seems to get more. The number of wastes in Hamburg and Hannover decreased and even though they cannot say if it is because more people were out of town or because of the shift in mentality, it is relieving to see how it is reducing. Furthermore, since the debate in the press, the politics and on the streets is increasing, it is a possibility to gain hope for a change of traditions. I can speak for myself: I enjoyed New Year’s Eve as much, even without fireworks. 

References:

https://www.tz.de/muenchen/stadt/muenchen-ort29098/muenchen-stadt-veroeffentlicht-weitere-hammer-zahlen-sieben-tonnen-silvester-muell-am-friedensengel-10941364.html

https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article212957503/Feinstaub-an-Silvester-Das-muss-man-ueber-Feuerwerke-wissen.html

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/dicke-luft-jahreswechsel

https://www.neuepresse.de/Hannover/Meine-Stadt/Weniger-Silvester-Muell-in-Hannover-als-in-den-Vorjahren

Edited by Hiba Arrame

The Belt and Road Initiative, Opportunities for EU-China relations

The Belt and Road initiative (BRI) figures as the most substantial and far-reaching connectivity project of our current times, and constitutes an essential pillar of China's foreign policy. The BRI aims to ameliorate the linkage and connectivity between Asia, Europe, and Africa across a road matching the ancient Silk Road. It will link China to Europe through terrestrial transport corridors spread out across Central Asia, Russia and the Middle East. As for the maritime route, it will connect the South China Sea and the Mediterranean Sea all over the Indian Ocean, Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal. (1)

This initiative includes 65 countries and comprehends six principal corridors: 

“China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor

China – Central Asia – Western Asia Economic Corridor

China – Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor

Bangladesh – China – India – Myanmar Economic Corridor

China – Pakistan Economic Corridor

Maritime Corridor “  (2)

Source

Since the launch of the BRI in 2013 by the Chinese president Xi Jinn Ping, this initiative drew an international interest regarding the impacts it might have on the three continents and the beneficiary countries of the project. Furthermore, it raised questions on the effects it will have on China's relations with other global actors. In this paper, we shed light on the EU-China cooperation on the BRI and the different opportunities this initiative offers to the EU-China relations.

After six years of the set-in motion of this ambitious initiative, the EU and its member states have failed to come up with a unified position over the BRI. This issue has been debated in several European capitals and EU institutions, which resulted in different views and perceptions over the BRI. Brussels  expressed its concerns over this initiative owing to its lack of a rule-based approach on market entry, public tenders, and ecological and social norms. Besides, The BRI has been viewed by some important EU member states (France, Germany) as a Chinese strategy intended to impose geopolitical domination and redefinition of international rules. (3) Nevertheless, other EU member states (Italy, Portugal, Greece, Poland and Hungary) view the BRI as an opportunity to enhancing connectivity and stimulating economic growth. While this debate continues among European centres of power, media and academia, Europe has already begun getting involved in the BRI in diverse ways.   

China and Europe cooperate on the BRI initially through a set of bilateral agreements and memorandum of understanding that China signed with several EU countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Estonia, Poland, Hungary, Croatia etc.) in addition to some non-EU countries, mainly in the Balkan region. On top of that, China and some Central and Eastern European countries implemented a framework of cooperation called 16+1, which aims to foster cooperation in order to promote the belt and road-related projects in this region. (4)

Additionally, the EU and China established in 2015 an EU-China connectivity platform, which is considered to be the EU response to the BRI. This framework aims to promote connectivity through enhancing cooperation on infrastructure building and transport policies. (5) In their turn, EU financial institutions, such as the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, have engaged in financing some BRI projects. More importantly, 13 EU member states are among the 57 founders of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

The fourth summit of China and Central and Eastern European countries 16+1

BRI Opportunities for EU- China Relations

 The EU figures as China's largest trading partner and China is the second-largest trading partner of the EU. (6) For this reason, enhancing connectivity between China and Europe by building infrastructure (railway networks, ports, airports, highways) will positively promote trade, in addition to spurring economic growth and creating a people-to-people exchange.  

Trade’s Promotion and Reduction of Shipping Time and Cost 

The gravity model of trade suggests that the amelioration of infrastructure and transport technology, leading to minimizing shipping and transportation cost, promotes trade and enhances transactions. This applies to the BRI, as this initiative gives birth to giant infrastructure projects linking China and Europe and more importantly decreasing the shipping time and cost. (7)

In this context, the high-speed railway running from the Chinese province Sichuan to Lodz in Poland has led to the reduction of the shipping time and cost. Now, goods from China to Lodz arrive in only 10-12 days instead of 20 -22 days via sea shipping. After their arrival in Lodz, products can attain other EU countries through EU railways and highway networks. (8)

Additionally, by the completion of the speedy sea-land path connecting Budapest with Piraeus port in Greece, Chinese goods will be able to attain Western Europe 10 days earlier. Hence, this will bolster trade flows between China and EU. This project consists of the enlargement of the high-speed railway Budapest - Belgrade in order to reach Athens and then link it with a highway to Piraeus port. (9)

Tackling Climate Change and Reducing CO2 Emissions

The BRI investment in high-speed railways and shift from sea shipping to rail freight linking Europe and China is likely to reduce the CO2 emissions, as trains are considered environment-friendly transportation means. (10) This aligns with EU and international community efforts to reduce CO2 emissions and tackle climate change.

Direct Investment and Economic Growth

The Belt and Road Initiative has led to an increase in Chinese direct investment in Europe, moving from 1 Billion US dollars in 2008 to 35 Billion US dollars in 2016. (11) BRI related investments are likely to spur Economic growth in Europe, specifically in countries severely affected by the Euro economic crisis, for instance, Greece and Portugal. It should be noted that investment directly influences economic growth, as it is a principal component of aggregates demand. (12)

For instance, the investment in Piraeus Port in Greece has led to the augmentation of containers flow, which went from 1.5 million twenty-foot equivalents units (TEUs) to 3.7 million TEUs. As a result, the Greek economy benefited from an add value of 700 million US Dollars as well as the creation of 10 000 job opportunities. (13)

Given this positive outcome, we can see the benefits of the BRI for both the EU and China. The BRI contributes to enhancing economic growth and generating jobs in EU countries, in parallel, Chinese companies benefit from the return on investment and the development of their exports to Europe. 

We can assert that the BRI has offered several opportunities to the EU-China relations. The BRI shall enhance connectivity, promote trade, reduce CO2 emission and stimulate economic growth in Europe and China. The two powers are urged to deepen political dialogue and enhance cooperation on the BRI. Consequently, defining a set of standard rules in terms of transparency, governance, protection of the environment and human rights. These rules should be respected in the implementation and management of BRI projects. 

Edited by Hiba Arrame

The Era Fascista in Italy

Stories and History

My grandfather, Andrea Naldini, was born in 1935. He was 10 years old when the WWII had finally ended. He was just a child, but the memory of the war is still vividly alive in his mind. When I asked my grandfather how he is able to remember the first years of his life so clearly, while I can hardly remember what I have learned at the University two months ago, grandpa replied that he forgets what he reads as well, the same way he forgets the information he gets from watching the TV, or even what he has eaten a day before, but he will never forget what he has been through sixty or seventy years ago. 

One of my grandfather’s stories that I remember the best concerns an antifascist named Aldo Palareti who was forced to hide in a farmer’s house in the mountains. Unfortunately, those poor and coward people betrayed him for money. 

The infamous "Troop of Death", a fascist militia from Verona, arrested him, and Aldo was taken to Galeata, a small village close to Forlì. Fascists ordered him to face the wall and bandaged him. He refused to be blindfolded, turned himself, looked at his executioners and shouted: "Viva l’Italia!" (“long live Italy”). They were his last words.

My 9 years old grandfather was there, with his grandmother and other women who spat and railed against the fascist murderers. My grandfather no doubt still remembers thinking at that moment: “ Why did he shout ‘Viva l’Italia’?! ”; Was it not Italy who was killing him right now?” 

There is a tombstone at the place where Aldo was shot, and a square named after him in Galeata, the little village where my grandfather grew up. But I am sure my grandpa does not need a tombstone to remember that brave man; Aldo’s sight full of anger and love for freedom is eternally engraved on his mind.                                                                                                                                   

I am always excited and happy to hear my grandfather’s stories - even though there are some that I have heard a thousand times before. They remind me that these things have really happened. 

Nowadays we can study history through many different sources - from school books, on websites, by watching documentaries - even though we might forget something very simple and yet so important through all these informational channels.

History is made by stories that have been outlived by people like us. This is also the point why I have decided to start writing about fascism this way. The history of that time can be found elsewhere, but it is not that easy to find some real stories that sketched that chapter of history. 

6 years old Andrea Naldini

There is the goat which suckled my grandfather because his mother died during giving the birth

The Rise of Fascism

As I have implicitly written in the first paragraphs, I am pretty sure it is not that useful to include a lot of dates, numbers and names of the fascist era. So, I will just tell some of the main steps that made Italy turn into an authoritarian state at the beginning of the 1920s. 

Mussolini took the power in October 1922, right after the mass demonstration known as “March on Rome”. It would have been unthinkable just a few years before, in fact in 1919 the fascist movement did not count relevant numbers and got only a handful of votes in elections. 

What made fascism possible is now, finally, clear and proven. For, the Italian ruling class of the time did not want to destroy that rising violent movement because they were scared of the social revolution more than anything else. They were actually going through the “Red Years” (1919-1920), an intense two-years period that was characterised by mass strikes, workers demonstrations and factory occupations. The liberal Italian ruling class was worried about the situation; that the workers could be able to take the power following what happened in 1917 to Russia. That is actually the main reason why the politicians of that time decided not to act promptly and fiercely against the fascists’ violence and brutality. They wanted to use fascists to repress and quell people’s rage. This caution and weakness of the liberal establishment caused indeed the darkest twenty-years long period of the Italian history. 

The Creation of the Fascist State 

During the elections in 1924, the leader of the Reformist Socialists, Giacomo Matteotti, denounced electoral fraud, sustaining that there had been widespread intimidations and manipulations and that, consequently, the election results could not be considered valid. Mussolini did not tolerate his dangerous statement and a group of fascists murdered the “naughty parliamentarian”. 

From this moment on, Mussolini began dismantling the constitutional and parliamentary order. He abolished elections, constitutional rights such as free speech and free association, and deemed oppositional parties and unions illegal. Step by step, Italy turned into a totalitarian state; the entire society and the life of every citizen was totally based on fascist “values” and aimed at serving the nation and glorifying its leader, the “Duce”. 

Mussolini’s policy was constantly based on three principles: order, discipline, and hierarchy. 

It will probably never be certainly known whether most Italians truly believed in fascist ideology and its megalomaniac leader or if they were just forced to act like that. Obviously, speaking or fighting against the regime was strictly forbidden, but it is also undeniable that the fascist propaganda worked effectively and was able to reach every single aspect of people’s life. 

Suffice to think about school, as well as all of the cultural world that was entirely under the regime’s control. At school, children had to learn first how to become “good fascists” and not cultured people, much less free thinkers. Children used to be indoctrinated, ill-educated.  

The School during fascism, 10 march 2010 (source)

History Should Teach… Have We Actually Learnt the Lesson?

Going back to my grandfather, I often notice how deeply disappointed he is when he looks at the world around him right now. It might sound rhetorical but his generation lived in the end of the era surrounded by authoritarianism, injustice, oppression, non-liberty and war. The generation fought and died trying to create a peaceful and equal society. Fascism was crushed at the end, but the better world they imagined and fought for till death is still to come. 

After the end of WWII, new and other unceasing wars followed each other. These new wars were/are somewhere else on the planet, where deaths seem to be “less relevant”.  And these are the exact same scenarios if we think about bloody dictatorships where authoritarian leaders starve people and repress every request of justice: they have not disappeared, they just rule unhindered somewhere else. 

Even when we look at our democratic Europe, many of its current aspects make us feel quite unsettled. In a number of European states, far-rights movements and parties are indeed becoming more relevant, and there remain still many neo-fascist groups in Italy which are free to organise demonstrations, spread their propaganda and even be elected. Despite the fact that the Italian Constitution states in no uncertain terms that fascism’s apology is a crime, neo-fascist are actually able to deceive the law by simply denying their roots and sustaining that they are inoffensive right-wing people. 

In 2011 in Florence, the city where I live, a member of Casapound (one of the most famous neo-fascist Italian group), shot and killed two people because of their race. They were two market sellers from Senegal called Samb Modou and Diop Mor. 

In conclusion, I truly believe that knowing the past should help us in analysing, understanding and changing the present, and even though Italian fascism was brought down more than seventy years ago, its backlashes still exist. There are still so many challenges to overcome if we want the world our grandparents imagined to become true.

Edited by Hiba Arrame

The Reality of Education in Uganda

People of the 21st century. What are they complaining about? The growing influence of the artificial intelligence? Trip to Mars? 3D-printing and genetic engineering? We live in a digital world, full of innovations and breakthroughs in all aspects of our life. But not all of us… There are still people who suffer from a lack of basic things which seem to be self-understanding, but which are also so important in the life of each of us. 

I am glad to introduce you to my dialogue with Ronnie Sentamu, principal of the Muwanga Development Association in Uganda. Together, we will explore challenges of real people from a different perspective. 

Hello, principal Sentamu. Let’s take a look at the beginning of your career. How did you come to the idea to found your own school?

I founded the school back in 2014. The idea came to me due a large number of orphan children on the streets of our village. They could not afford to pay student fees and had no possibility to get an education. I have sent a proposal to the Irish Aid Department. I provided a site territory and the Department helped us to build the school. I recruited teachers to enable a good future for those poor and orphan children of our village. 

 
Could you tell more about your current work? Which subjects do you provide for teaching at your school? How many students and teachers do you have at the moment? 

The total number of students is over 250, both: girls and boys. We have students ranging from primary one to primary seven. There are only 4 subjects taught at our school; those are English, maths, social studies and science. I try to keep the situation under control, but we do not have enough teachers, food, and resources in general… There are 10 paid teachers and 5 volunteers, they all are from Uganda. The paid ones are paid on time. Our school cannot afford it and I am looking for donors to support our work. There is also a need in some interactive projects or programs for our children, to help them being creative. 

There is a common problem among children and students throughout the world in terms of mental well-being. Young people are sensitive to social instability and problems in the family. It effects them: they get depressed, stressed, have a lot of fears. And I am sure that your students share the same problems. Do you help them to understand their mental problems and overcome fears? 

Sure, we have to listen to our student to be able to support them. There is a horrible story happened to one of my pupil who was raped. His parents did not even intervene to convict the offender. I called the police and the raper got prisoned. Our students are aware of the danger of being raped. We teach them how to defend their rights, contact police or elders. 

Have you ever contacted any international organisation? And does your state support you somehow? How do you get funding?

We apply for Erasmus+ Volunteering but we do not have any international volunteers at the moment. The state send us teachers for students and help us with improvement (for example, toilet building). They support us after "pressing” some officials. UNESCO had funded us once, we carried one research out. 

What is the biggest challenge for schools in your region?

Poverty. Families cannot afford such basic things as uniforms, books, writing materials. There is no infrastructure to teach children, no desks. Students study under trees. The shortage of teacher because we cannot pay them salary. Hunger, unsanitary condition, lack of drinking water. Most of teachers are not well educated themselves... 

17 Sustainable Development Goals have been proposed by the General Assembly of the United Nations in September 2015. The fourth of them is Quality Education: “Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all”. As you see, we still have not reached the basic goal which should be integrated in life of every single person of the planet. Research provided by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics shows that there was no progress in dissemination of primary and secondary education in the last year. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest number of out-of-school children. 

In conclusion I would like to say that I was amazed by principal Sentamu’s initiatives. Even though schools face serious difficulties in Uganda by not having basic resources, he supports an idea in the sense that everyone has a right to get education. There are batches of programs to improve the region provided by his organisation: teaching orphan and poor children who are unable to pay a student fee, creating a small football team, promoting to boil drinking water, building infrastructure, preventing AIDS, waste and plastic disposal. Our dialogue shows that there are still a lot of big challenges which people face in the 21st century, but in the same time there are people working hard to change the situation and to achieve our common goals to improve life quality of human beings. 

Refugee Crisis in Greece Nowadays

Greece has often been faced with refugee and immigration issues. However, the recent refugee crisis has led to a huge migrant/refugee wave to the country itself, especially in two consecutive years, 2015 and 2016. Thus, Greece has turned into an entrance immigrant country and nowadays consists a dominant transit country to other E.U. members or a permanent settlement.

This summer and beyond, there are many new arrivals so we are practically at the same pace as in 2016. For example only in October, came in Greece about 7,000 immigrants and refugees (1). A basic problem is that the conditions at the hot spots, on the islands, are not good. So arises the question if they will be properly prepared for this winter. In general the situation is uncertain and the refugees feel that they are in a deadlock. The most of them don´t want to stay in Greece. But also the reactions of residents in different parts of the country are intensifying.

Credit: Fahrinisa Campana/The World 

According to the UNHCR there are 96,500 immigrants and refugees in Greece. Specifically 30.700 in the islands and 65.800 in the mainland (2). Also according to the DW, today in Greece are coming mainly young men from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and the North Africa.  

The situation on the Aegean islands is tragic. According to Greek newspapers a total of 35,344 are trapped refugees and immigrants. In Lesvos there are 16,780 immigrants and refugees. Of them, 14,663 live in and around the Moria Hotspot, which can accommodate approximately 2,840 people. In Chios there are 5,140 immigrants and refugees. Of them, the 4,864 live in the Hotspot of VIAL, which can accommodate approximately 1,014 people. In Samos there are 6,404 immigrants and refugees. Of them the 6,173 live at the local Hotspot, which can accommodate 648 people. In Leros there are 2,433 immigrants and refugees. Here 2,184 of them live in the Hotspot, which can accommodate 860 people. In Kos there 4,308 immigrants and refugees. Of them, 3,813 live in the Hotspot, which can accommodate only 816 people (1-4).

As everyone can understand, both the physical and mental breakdown of these people is getting worse every day. The reason is the miserable living conditions, the lack of hygiene and the conditions as set out in the EU-Turkey declaration. More and more of them are in custody and in a legal vacuum.

According to organizations, the last semester (1):

• In Lesbos 20% of mental health patients attempted suicide

• The 50% of them are victims of torture and ill-treatment.

• The 30% of patients with mental health problems are victims of sexual abuse

• More than 1/4 of children with such problems are hurting themselves. Some of them tried to commit suicide, between them and children under the age of 10. There are 115 minors in Lesvos with cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular problems and so far cannot move in the mainland.

• The 50% of the refugees in the islands are minors.

• The 1/3 of the children in Lesvos live in camps and places made of plastic.

• There is one toilet for 300 children in Samos, one toilet for 200 people in Lesvos, while there should be 20 people per toilet. So they get sick and develop complex medical problems without adequate medical care, while there are many problems and impediments to referring them to provide appropriate treatment.

• More and more people are trapped in the islands for a longer period. A large number of immigrants and refugees who have got ill in Lesvos more than six months in the island and some more than half-year. As far as the vulnerability assessment is concerned, in 2018 over 78% of the mentally ill in Lesvos did not find out that they were vulnerable.

• According to complaints in the hotspot of Leros, all homeless children and some of the children who are in “houses” are full of flea bites. Many children develop abdominal algae and diarrhea due to the food they provide in the hotspots. Some children have asthma as they live close to the sea. Also there are children with nightmares and night sweats, and there is a number of mothers who while they have anemia they still breastfeed their babies.

Here is a recent example of the unacceptable situation: The organization “Doctors without Borders” announced in 16th of November (2019), via Twitter, the death of a nine months baby, after dehydration in the refugee and migrant hotspot in Moria. They are referring to immediate action by both Greece and the European Union (5).

This situation is being exploited by a variety of marginalized nationalist and far-right groups, which have, however, overestimated their influence and acceptance by the media. These groups call and conduct protests of hate, against the migrants and the refugees, even outside of the camps, offending the religious and cultural moral of the people. People of Greece must massively denounce and condemn the propaganda and the actions by racist and nationalist groups. We have to strengthen the solidarity between people of Greece and the refugees and the migrants. 

After all, the Greeks throughout their history have been themselves refugees and migrants. Even today many young people leave Greece for a better future elsewhere in Europe. Whether the problem is war or extreme poverty and unemployment, the cause around the world is common, is the barbaric exploitation system that we live. Our duty is to fight against it and for a better world, with peace and solidarity!

Credit: Fahrinisa Campana/The World

References:

1. K. (2019, 10 November). The consequences of the policy of trapping and repression are tragic. Athens: Rizospastis, 23.

2. UNHCR, Μηνιαίο Ενημερωτικό Δελτίο της Υ.Α. – Σεπτέμβριος 2019. Retrieved on 6-11-2019 from: https://www.unhcr.org/gr/13180%ce%bc%ce%b7%ce%bd%ce%b9%ce%b1%ce%af%ce%bf%ce%b5%ce%bd%ce%b7%ce%bc%ce%b5%cf%81%cf%89%cf%84%ce%b9%ce%ba%cf%8c-%ce%b4%ce%b5%ce%bb%cf%84%ce%af%ce%bf-%cf%84%ce%b7%cf%82-%cf%85-%ce%b1-%cf%83.html

3. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) (2019) Statistics. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/gr/%cf%83%cf%84%ce%b1%cf%84%ce%b9%cf%83%cf%84%ce%b9%ce%ba%ce%ac

4. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) (2019) Statistics. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/gr/%CF%80%CF%81%CE%BF%CF%83%CF%84%CE%B1%CF%83%CE%AF%CE%B1%CF%84%CF%89%CE%BD%CF%80%CF%81%CE%BF%CF%83%CF%86%CF%8D%CE%B3%CF%89%CE%BD-%CF%83%CF%84%CE%B7%CE%BD-%CE%B5%CE%BB%CE%BB%CE%AC%CE%B4%CE%B1

5. Sputnik Hellas (2019). Βρέφος εννέα μηνών πέθανε στη δομή προσφύγων και μεταναστών της Μόριας.Retrieved on 13-11-2019 from: https://sputniknews.gr/ellada/201911165268857-vrefos-thanatos-moria/