The Taiwan Question & Sino-American Relations
In May 2021, during a trip to China to promote the new installation in the Fast & Furious movie franchise, famous American actor and professional wrestler John Cena got himself in a heap of trouble when he said, during an interview on Taiwanese TV, that Taiwan would be “the first country to watch Fast & Furious 9”. More precisely, Cena received backlash from China due to his comments, which led to him apologizing to the Middle Empire in a short video during which the former professional wrestler underlined his “love and respect” for China and its population, all in Mandarin. Of course, it did not take very long for this event to cross the entire world, becoming a source of jokes and pleasantries on the internet through various memes.
Now, why exactly am I talking about this particular news topic? Simply because this event, through all its layers of silliness, perfectly summarizes the difficult case of Taiwan, as well as the current state of Sino-U.S. relations. Indeed, objectively speaking, Taiwan does fulfill the four criteria for statehood under international law defined in the first article of the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States (1933) – a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the capacity to establish foreign relations with other states. In addition, it has its own flag, its own national emblem, and its own national anthem. However, Taiwan's statehood is also frequently questioned, notably by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which considers Taiwan as a part of its territory in accordance with its “One China Policy”.
In the past year, the topic of Taiwan regained in importance around the world as the PRC adopted a more aggressive and expansionist approach to its foreign policy and began a military build-up along its borders with Taiwan, raising concerns of a possible Chinese invasion. In the meantime, the United States of America, considered by many to be Taiwan's greatest ally and whose relations with China have been at an all-time low over the past few years, got involved in this situation with the goal of assisting Taipei in the event of an invasion and convincing Beijing to reconsider its plans. In front of such a complex situation, one can wonder, for instance, why and how did this all happen and and whether it could have provoked an armed conflict between the U.S. and China. These questions, and perhaps many more, will be answered in the following article.
Historical Context
To fully understand the case at hand, it is necessary to go back in time. Over the course of history, the island of Taiwan has changed hands repeatedly – from the Dutch to the Spanish, to the Chinese and finally to the Japanese, who lost it back to China after the Second World War. It is important to note that this was not the same China as today – it was in fact its pre-communist version, the Republic of China (ROC), led by Chiang Kai-shek. At this moment in time, the ROC was torn by a civil war opposing the regime in place with communist insurgents led by a man named Mao Zedong, who eventually won the war. In the face of defeat, Chiang and his troops fled to Taiwan, where they proclaimed the Republic of China in exile while Mao, after coming into power, proclaimed the creation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Both of them claimed sovereignty on all of China, but if most states and organizations recognized Taiwan as the “real” China at first, the tide eventually turned in the PRC’s favor as a growing number of states began to recognize Beijing’s sovereignty over China, including the United States in the late 1970s.
The One-China Policy & Taiwanese Independence
There are essentially two different visions of Taiwan. In one, Taiwan is an independent country, and in the other, Taiwan is a province of China, which is the official policy of the Chinese government regarding the island. To further elaborate, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) considers that Taiwan is a distant Chinese territory that shall be reattached to China one day under what is called the “One-China Policy”.
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The One-China Policy is essentially a belief whose roots are linked to the fact that China, over the course of history, separated and reunited itself multiple times. In fact, the CCP considers that China’s territory still is not complete to this day as some parts of its former land are either part of another state (such as the Kashmir region in India) or autonomous, in the latter case it is Taiwan. Therefore, the main goal behind the One-China Policy is to regain these contested lands to one day make China truly united again.
Interestingly, a major part of the Sino-Taiwan dispute is linked to the fact that Taipei and Beijing have two different and conflicting perceptions of Taiwan. In fact, the tensions between the two actors started evolving to their current state following the election (and subsequent re-election) of Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, known for being a strong advocate for Taiwanese independence – which goes against everything the One-China Policy stands for. Therefore, over the last two years, the RPC has more than doubled its military presence near the island, wishing to deter Taipei from seeking its independence and even going as far as threatening the use of “drastic measures” in the advent of this scenario.
The U.S. Role
As mentioned earlier, this dispute is not solely between Taiwan and China, as there is another actor involved – the United States of America. Of course, one may wonder why exactly the U.S. is involved, considering that it is after all a dispute between two Asian countries. Simply put, it is because it is in their best interests to do so, and for two reasons. First, as previously mentioned, although the U.S. government does not formally recognize Taiwan as an independent state (doing so would prevent Washington from having diplomatic relations with the RPC), they still maintain some relations with Taipei, thanks in part to the existence of the Taiwan Relations Act from 1979. Such relations include the provision of military equipment and training to the Taiwanese Armed Forces to safeguard the island. And while the Taiwan Relations Act does not necessarily guarantee an American military intervention in the advent of a Chinese invasion of Taipei, it would not be surprising to see the U.S intervene in this scenario, as they play a major role in Taiwan’s defense.
Second, in addition to Sino-American relations currently being at a historically low point, many political scientists argue that Beijing and Washington’s competition for the ranking of superpower could drive them towards what is commonly known amongst experts as a Thucydides’ Trap. Named after famous Greek historian Thucydides who first observed this phenomenon in his account of the Peloponnesian War, the Thucydides’ Trap typically occurs when a rising power (in this case, China) threatens to remove the dominating power (in this case, the U.S) from its throne as superpower, potentially resulting in a preventive war between the two countries. Many Thucycides’ Traps have been observed throughout history, most notably between the U.S and the USSR during the Cold War, but not all of them have resulted in a conflict. Indeed, as political scientist Brandon K. Yoder pointed out in an article on the matter, a conflict may occur between the two states if the rising power has hostile intentions and therefore “takes overtly non-cooperative, “revisionist” actions”, i.e., actions that go completely against everything the current power stands for. Would Taiwan be the straw that broke the camel’s back in that regard? On paper, it could certainly be the case. However, as it has been proven time and time again, theories do not always work out when applied in the real world.
Conclusion
As pointed out in this article, the Taiwan situation is an extremely complex one that greatly affects the already strained relations between Beijing and Washington. However, it is hard to say for the moment if this will necessarily provoke an armed conflict between the two states. Indeed, while it is true that the tensions are extremely high in that regard, the Chinese and U.S. economies are very much codependent, and both countries still cooperate on topics such as the environment. In addition, one could argue that the U.S. seems to be prioritizing a hedging strategy over armed conflict to contain China’s power, as evidenced by the recent return of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) – an association of states whose goal is to contain Beijing’s rise and of which the U.S is a member. However, as it has been proven many times in the past, international politics are extremely unpredictable, and everything can change in a heartbeat.
